T\u00e1c gi\u1ea3: James B. Steinberg<\/p>\n\n\n\n
H\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn chung r\u1eb1ng Eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u00e3 n\u1ed5i l\u00ean nh\u01b0 \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00f3ng d\u1ec5 x\u1ea3y ra chi\u1ebfn tranh nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 quy m\u00f4 v\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 xung quanh \u0110\u00e0i Loan, \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p tr\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec h\u1ecd cho l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 khi\u00eau kh\u00edch t\u1eeb ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0y v\u00e0 M\u1ef9. \u0110\u00e1p l\u1ea1i, \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng v\u00e0 n\u00e2ng cao kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u c\u1ee7a qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i, trong khi M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 trong khu v\u1ef1c. C\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia, h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3, v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn \u0110\u00e0i Loan, t\u1eeb phong t\u1ecfa kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0m s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ebfn chi\u1ebfn tranh h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng, cho d\u00f9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 \u00fd hay m\u1ed9t v\u1ee5 va ch\u1ea1m ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0u v\u00e0 m\u00e1y bay. Trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c \u0111i\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e0m n\u0103m 2022 v\u1edbi T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 Joe Biden, nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Trung Qu\u1ed1c T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra l\u1eddi c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn v\u1ec1 h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0y: \u201cNh\u1eefng k\u1ebb \u0111\u00f9a v\u1edbi l\u1eeda s\u1ebd b\u1ecb thi\u00eau r\u1ee5i.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean khi c\u1ea3m gi\u00e1c v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 di\u1ec7t vong s\u1eafp x\u1ea3y ra n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 k\u00eau g\u1ecdi M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0a ra cam k\u1ebft r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan (bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 b\u1eb1ng v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, n\u1ebfu c\u1ea7n) v\u00e0 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan, \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng ph\u00e9p \u1ea9n d\u1ee5 s\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 bi\u1ebfn h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t \u201ccon nh\u00edm\u201d kh\u00f3 nu\u1ed1t tr\u00f4i ho\u1eb7c t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t \u201cchi\u1ebfn h\u00e0o s\u00f4i s\u1ee5c\u201d kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua xung quanh h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn v\u1edbi B\u1eafc Kinh, trong \u0111\u00f3 Washington ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t cam k\u1ebft b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0y s\u1ebd b\u1ecb b\u1ecf m\u1eb7c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 m\u00ecnh. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 m\u1ed7i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n \u0111\u1ec1u m\u1ea1nh d\u1ea1n kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00ednh \u01b0u vi\u1ec7t trong c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, nh\u01b0ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u1ee9a \u0111\u1ea7y r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i \u00edch v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed1i ngh\u1ecbch nhau c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o m\u00e0 M\u1ef9 l\u1ea1i r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 li\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 c\u00f3 gi\u00fap h\u1ecd v\u1ea1ch ra m\u1ed9t l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea7y r\u1eaby ch\u00f4ng gai hay kh\u00f4ng? \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch m\u1edbi g\u1ee3i nhi\u1ec1u suy ngh\u0129 c\u1ee7a Sulmaan Wasif Khan, Cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea5u tranh cho \u0110\u00e0i Loan<\/em>. Khan, m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 s\u1eed h\u1ecdc, \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng ngay t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u, l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng \u201cc\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 v\u1ec1 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 tay ba gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9, Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 \u0110\u00e0i Loan n\u1ebfu ch\u00fang ta mu\u1ed1n tr\u00e1nh th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trong ph\u1ea7n tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y v\u1ec1 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u00f3, Khan l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng \u201cs\u1ef1 nh\u1ea7m l\u1eabn \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea1o trong c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n ngay t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u.\u201d \u00d4ng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch th\u00eam r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp trong c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 hay th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c l\u00ean k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch. Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng, c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i b\u1ecb b\u1ecf l\u1ee1 l\u1eb7p \u0111i l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c b\u00ean. \u00d4ng ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch c\u00e1c t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ea3ng v\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00e1o b\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft d\u1ee9t \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan, m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 m\u00e0 \u00f4ng tin r\u1eb1ng s\u1ebd xoa d\u1ecbu v\u0129nh vi\u1ec5n nh\u1eefng c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111eo b\u00e1m m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 M\u1ef9-Trung. Gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn khi nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn l\u1ea1i qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9. Nh\u01b0ng Khan \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p c\u00e1ch Washington s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng s\u1ef1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 v\u00e0 th\u1ecfa hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ec3 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u1edbi B\u1eafc Kinh. Kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eefng kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea1o ra xung \u0111\u1ed9t, s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n cho nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a Khan v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng sai l\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb Cairo n\u0103m 1943. Ch\u00ednh t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f3, khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0110\u1ed3ng minh l\u00ean k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch cho th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi th\u1eddi h\u1eadu chi\u1ebfn, T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Franklin Roosevelt \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ee9a trao \u0110\u00e0i Loan, khi \u0111\u00f3 v\u1eabn b\u1ecb Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng, cho T\u01b0\u1edfng Gi\u1edbi Th\u1ea1ch, nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Qu\u1ed1c d\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea3ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Roosevelt thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u1ee7y th\u00e1c c\u1ee7a Li\u00ean H\u1ee3p Qu\u1ed1c ho\u1eb7c M\u1ef9, m\u00e0 theo Khan, s\u1ebd ng\u0103n \u0110\u00e0i Loan tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t qu\u1ea3 b\u00f3ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb trong cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi Qu\u1ed1c gia theo T\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a Mao Tr\u1ea1ch \u0110\u00f4ng. T\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3, Khan nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c sai l\u1ea7m ti\u1ebfp theo. T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Harry Truman quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trung l\u1eadp gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u1ee7a T\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 Mao, kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m h\u00e0i l\u00f2ng b\u00ean n\u00e0o trong Chi\u1ebfn tranh Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec1 cho nh\u1eefng c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n \u201cchia r\u1ebd, b\u1ed1i r\u1ed1i\u201d c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Dwight Eisenhower \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0110\u00e0i Loan b\u1ecb \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u00e0 \u201cm\u1ed9t m\u1edb h\u1ed7n \u0111\u1ed9n c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu quy\u1ebft \u0111o\u00e1n v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a qu\u00e2n phi\u1ec7t\u201d, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c b\u1ecf l\u1ee1 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i th\u1ecfa hi\u1ec7p v\u1ec1 \u0110\u00e0i Loan, trong \u0111\u00f3 M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ea1i l\u1ee5c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ngay c\u1ea3 T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Richard Nixon v\u00e0 Ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng Henry Kissinger, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ca ng\u1ee3i v\u00ec t\u00e0i n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd trong vi\u1ec7c d\u00e0n x\u1ebfp cho vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf c\u1eeda c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c, c\u0169ng b\u1ecb khi\u1ec3n tr\u00e1ch v\u00ec thi\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c. Khan ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch Th\u00f4ng c\u00e1o Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng H\u1ea3i, m\u1ed9t tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 chung \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i chuy\u1ebfn \u0111i n\u0103m 1972 c\u1ee7a Nixon t\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c, v\u00ec \u201cn\u00e9 tr\u00e1nh v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0110\u00e0i Loan.\u201d B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch kh\u00f4ng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u00f4ng khai nh\u1eefng g\u00ec Kissinger \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o ri\u00eang v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u2013 r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan theo h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea1i l\u1ee5c \u2013 Khan cho r\u1eb1ng Washington \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf l\u1ee1 \u201cc\u01a1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 l\u1ea1i h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o\u201d cho B\u1eafc Kinh v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n v\u00e0 m\u00e3i m\u00e3i. Ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Jimmy Carter \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khen ng\u1ee3i v\u00ec \u201cs\u1ef1 quy\u1ebft \u0111o\u00e1n\u201d c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf hi\u1ec7p \u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u1ec3 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn Trung Qu\u1ed1c C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n. Nh\u01b0ng Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e3 k\u00e9o \u00f4ng l\u1ea1i khi th\u00f4ng qua \u0110\u1ea1o lu\u1eadt Quan h\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan n\u0103m 1979, kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan s\u1ebd l\u00e0 \u201cm\u1ed1i quan ng\u1ea1i nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi M\u1ef9\u201d v\u00e0 quy \u0111\u1ecbnh ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c b\u00e1n v\u0169 kh\u00ed cho h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0y. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Khan, \u0111\u1ea1o lu\u1eadt n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn Washington \u201cho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u1ed1i r\u1ed1i v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 cam k\u1ebft th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Khan, sai l\u1ea7m ch\u1ebft ng\u01b0\u1eddi trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 ho\u1eb7c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i n\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan. \u0110\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ecdn m\u1ed9t b\u00ean, nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb b\u1ecf qua. Trong m\u1ed9t b\u1ea3n ghi nh\u1edb v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 7 n\u0103m 1949, nh\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i giao M\u1ef9 George Kennan l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 (m\u1ed9t m\u00ecnh ho\u1eb7c v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c) n\u00ean bu\u1ed9c Qu\u1ed1c d\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea3ng r\u1eddi kh\u1ecfi \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp m\u1ed9t ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf nh\u1eb1m t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c tr\u01b0ng c\u1ea7u d\u00e2n \u00fd \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o \u2013 m\u1ed9t \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra hai n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 b\u1edfi \u0111\u1eb7c ph\u00e1i vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a Truman \u1edf Trung Qu\u1ed1c, T\u01b0\u1edbng Albert Wedemeyer. K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch n\u00e0y ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c, nh\u01b0ng Khan l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd v\u1edbi n\u00f3. \u00d4ng vi\u1ebft: \u201cN\u00f3 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb c\u1ef1c \u0111oan v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00f3, nh\u01b0ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng h\u01a1n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra sau \u0111\u00f3.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Khan c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00ec nh\u1eefng sai l\u1ea7m l\u1eb7p \u0111i l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i. \u00d4ng tr\u00edch d\u1eabn vi\u1ec7c h\u1ecd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c kh\u0103ng kh\u0103ng r\u1eb1ng \u0110\u00e0i Loan l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u00e1ch r\u1eddi c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 h\u1ecd t\u1eeb l\u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn n\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a M\u00f4ng C\u1ed5, n\u01a1i c\u0169ng t\u1eebng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed3n c\u1ee7a tri\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ea1i nh\u00e0 Thanh. \u00d4ng c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 ra nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi \u0111e d\u1ecda thi\u1ebfu t\u1ebf nh\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n \u0110\u00e0i Loan do Chu Dung C\u01a1, th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1998 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2003, \u0111\u01b0a ra, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00eam l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0110\u00e0i Loan ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i vi\u1ec7c th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Khan vi\u1ebft: \u201cN\u1ebfu B\u1eafc Kinh tr\u00e1nh nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi \u0111e d\u1ecda v\u00e0 khoe khoang, th\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t trong h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Khan ph\u00e1c th\u1ea3o m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n\u2014v\u00e0 theo \u00f4ng, \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01a1n. \u00d4ng d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng quan t\u00e2m l\u1eafm \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 \u0111\u00e3 di\u1ec5n ra theo h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0o, mi\u1ec5n l\u00e0 Washington \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ecdn m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch d\u1ee9t kho\u00e1t. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u00f4ng, n\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn n\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan (t\u1ea1i Cairo ho\u1eb7c trong N\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn Trung Qu\u1ed1c) ho\u1eb7c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn y\u00eau s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a B\u1eafc Kinh (v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng n\u0103m 1949 ho\u1eb7c trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 x\u00edch l\u1ea1i g\u1ea7n nhau v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1970), th\u00ec h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf kh\u00f3 x\u1eed m\u00e0 h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t ng\u00e0y nay: ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i nh\u1eefng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c nh\u1eb1m \u00e9p bu\u1ed9c th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i e ng\u1ea1i cam k\u1ebft b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 x\u1ea3y ra chi\u1ebfn tranh v\u1edbi B\u1eafc Kinh. Khan \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i l\u00ean m\u1ed9t ti\u1ebfng n\u00f3i chung v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0110\u00e0i Loan, ch\u01b0a k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng l\u1ed9n x\u1ed9n h\u01a1n n\u1eefa khi Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i c\u0169ng tham gia v\u00e0o v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee9c t\u00ednh, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u00f3i x\u1ea5u. Th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecb ch\u1ebf gi\u1ec5u l\u00e0 \u201cm\u01a1 h\u1ed3 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201c, c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Washington tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c tinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng \u1edf c\u1ea3 hai b\u1edd eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan, b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i n\u00eau r\u00f5 trong nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0o h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 can thi\u1ec7p qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t gi\u1eefa \u0110\u00e0i B\u1eafc v\u00e0 B\u1eafc Kinh. Theo \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan thi\u1ebfu c\u00e1c ngh\u0129a v\u1ee5 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i. Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 cam k\u1ebft ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 t\u1eadp th\u1ec3, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 \u0110i\u1ec1u 5 c\u1ee7a NATO ho\u1eb7c hi\u1ec7p \u01b0\u1edbc an ninh M\u1ef9-Nh\u1eadt. Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, theo \u0110\u1ea1o lu\u1eadt Quan h\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan, M\u1ef9 cam k\u1ebft coi \u201cb\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c n\u00e0o nh\u1eb1m x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p phi h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh\u201d l\u00e0 \u201cm\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 an ninh c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c T\u00e2y Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i quan ng\u1ea1i nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi M\u1ef9.\u201d \u0110\u1ea1o lu\u1eadt n\u00e0y c\u0169ng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u M\u1ef9 cung c\u1ea5p thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 cho \u0110\u00e0i Loan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0110\u1ea1o lu\u1eadt Quan h\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan l\u00e0 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u201cm\u1ed9t Trung Qu\u1ed1c\u201d l\u00e2u \u0111\u1eddi c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9. Theo ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y, Washington kh\u00f4ng c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn ngo\u1ea1i giao ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c M\u1ef9 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1ec1 nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1, t\u1eeb y t\u1ebf c\u00f4ng c\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ebfn, v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 an ninh. \u0110\u1ea1o lu\u1eadt kh\u00f4ng \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c \u0110\u00e0i Loan gia nh\u1eadp Li\u00ean H\u1ee3p Qu\u1ed1c ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf m\u00e0 \u201cc\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1ecb qu\u1ed1c gia\u201d l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ti\u00eau ch\u00ed, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o \u0111\u00f3ng m\u1ed9t vai tr\u00f2 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn \u0111a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 quan h\u1ec7 ngo\u1ea1i giao \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan ngay c\u1ea3 khi M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m v\u1eady. C\u00f3 l\u1ebd quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng tr\u00ean nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc r\u1eb1ng t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n c\u1ee7a h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0y \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n B<\/strong>\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 s\u1ef1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Khan kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi duy nh\u1ea5t b\u1eadn t\u00e2m v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c; ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u chuy\u00ean gia v\u00e0 c\u1ef1u quan ch\u1ee9c c\u0169ng k\u00eau g\u1ecdi chuy\u1ec3n sang ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i giao r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n. B\u1ea3n th\u00e2n Biden \u0111\u00e3 nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng can thi\u1ec7p qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 sau \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c kh\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn nh\u1eefng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3, nh\u01b0ng h\u1ecd c\u0169ng kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0o trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Khan c\u00f3 l\u00fd khi \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9. S\u1ef1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 c\u00f3 c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. Nh\u01b0 nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 chuy\u00ean gia ng\u01b0\u1eddi Texas, Jim Hightower \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t, \u201cKh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec \u1edf gi\u1eefa \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u00e0i nh\u1eefng v\u1ea1ch k\u1ebb m\u00e0u v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng con tatu\u201d. Loay hoay, tr\u00e1nh n\u00e9, th\u1ecfa hi\u1ec7p\u2014t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c thi\u1ebfu r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n m\u00e0 b\u1ecf qua h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu quy\u1ebft \u0111o\u00e1n. S\u1ef1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch k\u1ebb th\u00f9 v\u00e0 khi\u1ebfn b\u1ea1n b\u00e8 b\u1ea5t an.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 th\u01b0\u1eddng sai kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 n\u00f3 lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n sai. C\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00fang v\u1edbi c\u00e2u c\u00e1ch ng\u00f4n c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 v\u0103n H. L. Mencken: \u201c\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n v\u00e0 sai.\u201d \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 khi M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ee3i \u00edch b\u1ecb \u0111e d\u1ecda, \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00f3a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ch\u00fang. Washington c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i \u00edch h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn trong vi\u1ec7c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 nh\u1eefng ai \u0111\u1ea5u tranh cho nh\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n v\u00e0 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7, nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n d\u0169ng c\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7, tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean l\u00e0 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Qu\u1ed1c d\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i v\u00e0 gi\u1edd l\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb B\u1eafc Kinh. M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i \u00edch m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd trong vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft tranh ch\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 b\u00e1c b\u1ecf s\u1ef1 \u00e9p bu\u1ed9c v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1. V\u00e0 h\u1ecd \u0111\u00fang khi lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c xung quanh \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n \u0110\u00e0i Loan. Nh\u01b0ng M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i \u00edch h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn trong vi\u1ec7c tr\u00e1nh chi\u1ebfn tranh, ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n kinh t\u1ebf s\u00e2u s\u1eafc s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra do tranh ch\u1ea5p leo thang v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c. V\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, t\u1eeb bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ebfn r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a AI, \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Khan quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng \u0110\u00e0i Loan ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c ng\u00e0y nay kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng n\u00f3 \u201cl\u00e0 l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u1eeb th\u1eddi c\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ea1i.\u201d Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, \u00f4ng cho r\u1eb1ng, h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 thu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ecba c\u1ee7a tri\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ea1i nh\u00e0 Thanh v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3, l\u1ebd ra n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb cam k\u1ebft theo ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a Wilson c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1ec1 quy\u1ec1n t\u1ef1 quy\u1ebft d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c v\u00e0 phong tr\u00e0o phi th\u1ef1c d\u00e2n h\u00f3a r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n sau CTTG II. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m tranh lu\u1eadn hay, c\u00f3 s\u1ee9c c\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u1edf m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia ra \u0111\u1eddi b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1eeb b\u1ecf \u00e1ch th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb thu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ecba. Nh\u01b0ng M\u1ef9 lu\u00f4n dao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong vi\u1ec7c \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 c\u00e1c phong tr\u00e0o ly khai. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, h\u00e3y so s\u00e1nh vi\u1ec7c h\u1ecd ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn n\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a Kosovo v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2008 v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c h\u1ecd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi Kurd \u1edf Iraq. Th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o M\u1ef9 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 quy\u1ec1n t\u1ef1 tr\u1ecb ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb h\u01a1n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Khi nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra \u1edf \u0110\u00e0i Loan trong 80 n\u0103m qua m\u00e0 Khan ghi l\u1ea1i, th\u1eadt kh\u00f3 hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao \u00f4ng v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch kh\u00e1c l\u1ea1i coi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i. Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u00f3, \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng kh\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i v\u00e0 tr\u1ea3i qua t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf ch\u00f3ng m\u1eb7t. H\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0y hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 s\u00f4i \u0111\u1ed9ng, \u0111\u1ee9ng th\u1ee9 14 tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 thu nh\u1eadp b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u00e0 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi trong m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5t b\u00e1n d\u1eabn. \u0110\u00fang l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh hi\u1ec7n nay r\u1ea5t nguy hi\u1ec3m, nh\u01b0ng nh\u00ecn t\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a n\u0103m 1943, n\u01a1i Khan b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, th\u1eadt kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 kh\u00e1 t\u1ed1t cho \u0110\u00e0i Loan\u2014v\u00e0 M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n M\u1ed9t tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd ch\u1ee9ng minh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1995 v\u00e0 1996, khi Trung Qu\u1ed1c b\u1eafn t\u00ean l\u1eeda g\u1ea7n \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111e d\u1ecda c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0y. \u0110\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n B\u1eafc Kinh m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng khi\u00eau kh\u00edch h\u1ecd, T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Bill Clinton \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m t\u00e0u s\u00e2n bay M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0110\u00e0i Loan nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111i v\u00e0o eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan. Khan th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 xoa d\u1ecbu th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng. \u00d4ng vi\u1ebft: \u201cN\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0a c\u00e1c t\u00e0u s\u00e2n bay v\u00e0o eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng (nh\u01b0 th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecb nh\u1edb nh\u1ea7m), B\u1eafc Kinh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5y m\u00ecnh kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 l\u00f9i b\u01b0\u1edbc\u201d, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi cho bi\u1ebft th\u00eam r\u1eb1ng t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u201cleo thang \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c chi\u1ebfn tranh t\u1ed5ng l\u1ef1c.\u201d Th\u00f4ng qua ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u201cm\u1ed9t Trung Qu\u1ed1c\u201d sau \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Clinton \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh cho vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3, \u0111\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3t n\u00f3, kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 M\u1ef9-Trung \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01a1n m\u00e0 c\u00f2n t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n cho \u0110\u00e0i Loan gia nh\u1eadp T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c theo \u0111u\u1ed5i c\u00e1c c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n V\u1edbi l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean khi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ea3ng theo \u0111u\u1ed5i, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 Ronald Reagan, ng\u01b0\u1eddi khi nh\u1eadm ch\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eeb b\u1ecf s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o an ninh cho \u0110\u00e0i Loan, v\u00e0 George W. Bush, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 trong nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 Khan \u0111\u00fang khi bu\u1ed9c ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ecdc ph\u1ea3i suy ngh\u0129 ch\u00edn ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, nh\u01b0ng nh\u00ecn chung, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn x\u1ee9ng \u0111\u00e1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 cao, b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng sai s\u00f3t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ebft?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Nh\u01b0ng hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o cho k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n v\u00ec t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c b\u00ean \u0111\u1ec1u b\u1eb1ng l\u00f2ng tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p d\u1ee9t kho\u00e1t cho t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, tin r\u1eb1ng th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ee9ng v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda h\u1ecd. Trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Trung Qu\u1ed1c hy v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng kinh t\u1ebf ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c M\u1ef9 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n. Ni\u1ec1m tin n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t m\u00e0 Kissinger \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi Trung Qu\u1ed1c trong cu\u1ed9c g\u1eb7p n\u0103m 1971 t\u1ea1i B\u1eafc Kinh: \u201cL\u00e0 m\u1ed9t sinh vi\u00ean l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta ph\u1ea3i d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd \u0111i theo h\u01b0\u1edbng m\u00e0 Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Chu \u00c2n Lai \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra cho t\u00f4i\u2026Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfn h\u00f3a c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n\u201d. T\u1eeb quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thu h\u1eb9p s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea1i l\u1ee5c, \u0111\u1ec3 hai b\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft trong \u0111\u00f3 \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 v\u00e0 t\u00f4n tr\u1ecdng nh\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, c\u00f3 l\u1ebd d\u01b0\u1edbi c\u00e1i t\u00ean \u201cm\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia, hai ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ng\u00e0y nay, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi cho r\u1eb1ng, t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00e1c xa, kh\u00f4ng b\u00ean n\u00e0o trong ba b\u00ean tin r\u1eb1ng th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ee9ng v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda m\u00ecnh. Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1edf M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 \u0110\u00e0i Loan, s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 B\u1eafc Kinh s\u1ebd s\u1edbm c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u00e0nh chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1; ngay c\u1ea3 ng\u00e0y nay, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi cho r\u1eb1ng, vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0y s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 nan gi\u1ea3i. Theo phe n\u00e0y, ch\u1ec9 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u0103n \u0111e th\u00f4ng qua cam k\u1ebft r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, m\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c th\u00e2u t\u00f3m. T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u1edf \u0110\u00e0i B\u1eafc v\u00e0 Washington \u0111ang \u0111i sai h\u01b0\u1edbng. V\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1, c\u1eed tri \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ea7u L\u1ea1i Thanh \u0110\u1ee9c l\u00e0m t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng, m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o m\u00e0 B\u1eafc Kinh coi l\u00e0 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u1ec1n nhi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng, Th\u00e1i Anh V\u0103n. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng quy\u1ebft li\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0y c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 tu\u1ed9t kh\u1ecfi t\u1ea7m tay c\u1ee7a B\u1eafc Kinh. Gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 cu\u1ed9c tranh lu\u1eadn \u1edf M\u1ef9, nh\u1eefng k\u1ebb di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u \u1edf Trung Qu\u1ed1c ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ec3 khu\u1ea5t ph\u1ee5c \u0110\u00e0i Loan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ch\u00ednh s\u1ef1 ph\u1ea3n chi\u1ebfu n\u00e0y g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n t\u1ea1o n\u00ean c\u1ea3m gi\u00e1c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng hi\u1ec7n nay, m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh quen thu\u1ed9c trong \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ef1 lo l\u1eafng v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t an khi\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t b\u00ean th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba g\u00e2y ra c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i h\u01a1n cho b\u00ean kia\u2014\u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00fd lu\u1eadn quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201cth\u1ebf l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan an ninh\u201d ho\u1eb7c \u201cm\u00f4 h\u00ecnh xo\u1eafn \u1ed1c\u201d. Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00e0ng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan, M\u1ef9 c\u00e0ng th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1n v\u0169 kh\u00ed v\u00e0 c\u00e1c chuy\u1ebfn th\u0103m c\u1ee7a Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i t\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u1ec3 t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u0103n \u0111e. V\u00e0 h\u1ecd c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3, Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00e0ng c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i leo thang c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Th\u1eadt d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u0103n \u0111e b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch c\u1ea5p cho \u0110\u00e0i Loan m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc s\u1ebd mang l\u1ea1i \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t cho t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c b\u00ean, b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi tr\u00e1nh chi\u1ebfn tranh b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c Trung Qu\u1ed1c r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 n\u00e0o c\u0169ng s\u1ebd th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i. C\u00f3 th\u1ec3\u2014gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 b\u00e1c b\u1ecf\u2014nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng. L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y ng\u1ee5 \u00fd r\u1eb1ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u0169 l\u1ef1c n\u1ebfu h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn r\u1eb1ng m\u00ecnh s\u1ebd th\u1eafng, nh\u01b0ng ai d\u00e1m n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng khi \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng xa v\u1eddi, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1c? Ngay c\u1ea3 khi M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 \u0110\u00e0i Loan k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00f9i m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng, th\u00ec c\u0169ng kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u1edbng l\u0129nh Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd chia s\u1ebb \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u1ea3m \u0111\u1ea1m \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 truy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea1t n\u00f3 cho nh\u1eefng l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o d\u00e2n s\u1ef1. Quan tr\u1ecdng kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9m, n\u1ebfu \u0110\u00e0i Loan t\u1ef1 tin h\u01a1n v\u00e0o hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 r\u0103n \u0111e, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y t\u1ef1 do h\u01a1n trong vi\u1ec7c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Gi\u1eef l\u1ea5y h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n V\u00ec t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng l\u00fd do n\u00e0y, c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro m\u1ed9t khi s\u1ef1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng khi\u00eau kh\u00edch c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c b\u1ecb x\u00f3a b\u1ecf. Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00fang khi ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00e2u d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t \u201cm\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 cho s\u1ef1 may r\u1ee7i\u201d, theo c\u00e1ch n\u00f3i \u0111\u00e1ng nh\u1edb c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 l\u00fd lu\u1eadn tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i Thomas Schelling, t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn \u1edf b\u00ean n\u00e0y v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch b\u00ean kia s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng. Do \u0111\u00f3, b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3, c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng khen ng\u1ee3i trong vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0110\u00e0i Loan t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec \u201chi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng\u201d, m\u1ed9t thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c L\u1ea1i Thanh \u0110\u1ee9c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng trong c\u1ea3 chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch tranh c\u1eed v\u00e0 trong b\u00e0i ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u nh\u1eadm ch\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc m\u00e0 Khan r\u00fat ra t\u1eeb l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. Nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean khi \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n \u0110\u00e0i Loan mong mu\u1ed1n. Trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c th\u0103m d\u00f2 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 2 n\u0103m 2024, h\u01a1n 80% s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 duy tr\u00ec hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng, d\u00f9 l\u00e0 t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi hay v\u0129nh vi\u1ec5n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 nghi ng\u1edd \u1edf t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c b\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng. Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 mi\u1ec5n c\u01b0\u1ee1ng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh vi\u1ec7c h\u1ecd ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng s\u1eb5n l\u00f2ng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn vi\u1ec7c tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t v\u00f4 th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed7i b\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng. Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 r\u00fat l\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c \u0110\u00e0i Loan tham gia c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0110\u00e0i Loan l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u00ean tham gia kh\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c trong c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc. (B\u1eafc Kinh \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u00f3 trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9; h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0110\u00e0i B\u1eafc v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch quan s\u00e1t vi\u00ean trong \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng Y t\u1ebf Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2009 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2016 v\u00e0 v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1ch m\u1eddi t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c H\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng D\u00e2n d\u1ee5ng Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2013.) \u0110\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u00ecnh, \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng c\u00e1c n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c \u0111ang gi\u1ea3m s\u00fat c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn ngo\u1ea1i giao ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c t\u1eeb c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c. M\u1ed7i b\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd t\u00f4n tr\u1ecdng c\u00e1c gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n ng\u1ea7m, n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n n\u00f3i l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c, \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 duy tr\u00ec hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n \u1edf b\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung tuy\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan khi ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean kh\u00f4ng. Quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t, Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd n\u1ed1i l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed1i tho\u1ea1i v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan\u2014\u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i sau khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u1ec1n nhi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a L\u1ea1i Thanh \u0110\u1ee9c \u0111\u1eafc c\u1eed v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2016\u2014v\u1edbi cam k\u1ebft \u0111\u00e3 n\u00eau c\u1ee7a L\u1ea1i Thanh \u0110\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u00f3 l\u1ebd b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u1ea5t trong cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Khan li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c. Khan li\u00ean t\u1ee5c nh\u1eafc nh\u1edf ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ecdc r\u1eb1ng con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi m\u00e0 l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn do c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u1edf B\u1eafc Kinh, \u0110\u00e0i B\u1eafc v\u00e0 Washington \u0111\u01b0a ra. L\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 v\u1eeba l\u00e0 c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u1eeba l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u1edf c\u1ea3 ba th\u1ee7 \u0111\u00f4. Xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra, nh\u01b0ng vi\u1ec7c tr\u00e1nh xung \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i b\u00ean trong ba ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 n\u00e0y. Nh\u01b0 Khan v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch kh\u00e1c v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan th\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ec9 ra, nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 v\u00e0 th\u1ecfa hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn c\u1ea3 \u0110\u00e0i Loan, Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n h\u00e0i l\u00f2ng. Nh\u01b0ng g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 theo \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a, b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0o l\u00e0m h\u00e0i l\u00f2ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u00ean n\u00e0y s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00ean kia ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn, v\u00ec v\u1eady m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a Washington ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 t\u00ecm ra m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng m\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c b\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u1ed1t, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i giao h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n –<\/p>\n\n\n\n James B. Steinberg l\u00e0 Tr\u01b0\u1edfng khoa Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf Cao c\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Johns Hopkins. \u00d4ng t\u1eebng gi\u1eef ch\u1ee9c Th\u1ee9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng Ngo\u1ea1i giao M\u1ef9 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2009 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2011 v\u00e0 Ph\u00f3 C\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n An ninh Qu\u1ed1c gia M\u1ef9 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1996 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Ngu\u1ed3n:\u00a0 James B. Steinberg, \u201cThe Upside to Uncertainty on Taiwan<\/a>\u201d,\u00a0Foreign Affairs<\/em>, 16\/10\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch:\u00a0Vi\u00ean \u0110\u0103ng Huy |\u00a0Hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u00ednh:\u00a0Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ebf Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng<\/p>\n\n\n\n