{"id":590,"date":"2024-10-17T04:12:16","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T04:12:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/phongtraoduytan.com\/?p=590"},"modified":"2024-10-17T04:12:16","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T04:12:16","slug":"tai-sao-xay-dung-quoc-gia-lai-that-bai-o-afghanistan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/?p=590","title":{"rendered":"T\u1ea1i sao x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng qu\u1ed1c gia l\u1ea1i th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i \u1edf Afghanistan"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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T\u00e1c gi\u1ea3: Daron Acemoglu<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 M\u1ef9 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd vi\u1ec7c r\u00fat qu\u00e2n kh\u1ecfi Afghanistan t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng th\u1ea3m k\u1ecbch \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra trong th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh trong su\u1ed1t 20 n\u0103m. Ngay t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u, M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u2013 v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd xem x\u00e9t l\u1ea1i \u2013 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1eeb tr\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng, m\u00e0 v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1eb5n \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Istanbul \u2013 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c Afghanistan 20 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1edbi hy v\u1ecdng t\u00e1i thi\u1ebft m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh n\u1ed7i \u0111au kh\u1ed5 cho th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n n\u01a1i \u0111\u00e2y. Nh\u01b0 T\u01b0\u1edbng Stanley McChrystal gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 n\u0103m 2009, m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 \u201cch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Afghanistan c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u1ee7 l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh nh\u1eb1m h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 \u0111\u00f3 cho kh\u1ee7ng b\u1ed1 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y, v\u1edbi h\u01a1n 100,000 sinh m\u1ea1ng \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 2 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la \u0111\u00e3 chi ti\u00eau, \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ee9ng minh cho n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u1ea3nh h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n trong vi\u1ec7c r\u00fat lui kh\u1ecfi \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc \u2013 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 \u0111\u00e1ng x\u1ea5u h\u1ed5 g\u1ee3i nh\u1edb \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a S\u00e0i G\u00f2n n\u0103m 1975. \u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 sai?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng theo c\u00e1ch m\u00e0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngh\u0129. Vi\u1ec7c l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch k\u00e9m v\u00e0 thi\u1ebfu th\u00f4ng tin ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn \u0111\u00e3 g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n v\u00e0o th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda, nh\u01b0ng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh trong su\u1ed1t 20 n\u0103m qua.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 hi\u1ec3u t\u1eeb r\u1ea5t s\u1edbm r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ee7a ph\u00e1p lu\u1eadt v\u00e0 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 l\u00e0 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00e1c th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1eefng m\u1ea1nh. \u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch b\u1edfi nhi\u1ec1u chuy\u00ean gia v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft l\u1ed7i th\u1eddi, qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 coi th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c n\u00e0y nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt: Afghanistan thi\u1ebfu c\u00e1c th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng an ninh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng, t\u00f2a \u00e1n v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng quan ch\u1ee9c c\u00f3 ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c, v\u00ec v\u1eady gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p l\u00e0 b\u01a1m ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n giao chuy\u00ean m\u00f4n t\u1eeb n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i. C\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c phi ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3 r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 m\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 theo c\u00e1ch ri\u00eang c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd (d\u00f9 ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00f3 mu\u1ed1n hay kh\u00f4ng). V\u00e0 v\u00ec c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd c\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c qu\u00e2n nh\u00e2n n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i \u2013 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng NATO, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 th\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n \u2013 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n khai \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec an ninh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Khi xem x\u00e9t vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u201cx\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u01b0\u1edbc\u201d t\u1eeb tr\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 tu\u00e2n theo m\u1ed9t truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng l\u00e2u \u0111\u1eddi trong khoa h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. Gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp s\u1ef1 th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u00e1p \u0111\u1ea3o tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 v\u00e0 khu\u1ea5t ph\u1ee5c m\u1ecdi ngu\u1ed3n quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t \u00fd ch\u00ed c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u1edf h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c n\u01a1i, l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u00fang m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n; v\u00e0 \u1edf Afghanistan, n\u00f3 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n sai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn r\u1eb1ng Afghanistan c\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng. Nh\u01b0ng gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t t\u1eeb tr\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng b\u1edfi c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. Nh\u01b0 James Robinson v\u00e0 t\u00f4i l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn trong cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch n\u0103m 2019 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i, \u201cThe Narrow Corridor\u201d, c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a khi \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i \u0111a d\u1ea1ng s\u00e2u s\u1eafc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c quanh c\u00e1c phong t\u1ee5c v\u00e0 quy t\u1eafc \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng, n\u01a1i m\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e2u kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7n h\u1eefu ho\u1eb7c b\u1ecb suy y\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u00fang l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u1eeb tr\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng \u0111\u00e3 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng \u1edf m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p (ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 tri\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ea1i T\u1ea7n \u1edf Trung Qu\u1ed1c ho\u1eb7c \u0110\u1ebf ch\u1ebf Ottoman). Nh\u01b0ng h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng b\u1eb1ng v\u0169 l\u1ef1c m\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 th\u1ecfa hi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c. Vi\u1ec7c t\u1eadp trung quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng d\u01b0\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc th\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n. Trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y, nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t l\u00ean m\u1ed9t x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 \u0111i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i mong mu\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd; m\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng t\u00ednh h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 t\u1eeb qu\u1ea7n ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 M\u1ef9 n\u00ean h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u1edbi Taliban. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 M\u1ef9 n\u00ean l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c g\u1ea7n g\u0169i h\u01a1n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng kh\u00e1c nhau, thay v\u00ec \u0111\u1ed5 ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0o ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 tham nh\u0169ng v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean sau Taliban, Hamid Karzai (v\u00e0 c\u00e1c anh em c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng). Ashraf Ghani, t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Afghanistan \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c M\u1ef9 h\u1eadu thu\u1eabn, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ed1n sang C\u00e1c Ti\u1ec3u V\u01b0\u01a1ng Qu\u1ed1c \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Th\u1ed1ng Nh\u1ea5t tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y, l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2009 ghi l\u1ea1i c\u00e1ch chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y tham nh\u0169ng v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch \u0111\u1ec1 ra. Tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t khi n\u1eafm quy\u1ec1n, Ghani l\u1ea1i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111i theo con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng c\u0169.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh m\u00e0 M\u1ef9 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t \u1edf Afghanistan th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi mu\u1ed1n x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng qu\u1ed1c gia th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1eb7p. Ngay t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u, d\u00e2n Afghanistan \u0111\u00e3 xem s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i nh\u1eb1m l\u00e0m y\u1ebfu x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. \u0110\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn m\u00e0 h\u1ecd mong mu\u1ed1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra khi c\u00e1c n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1eeb tr\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng di\u1ec5n ra ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i mong mu\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i? \u1ede nhi\u1ec1u n\u01a1i, l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn duy nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 r\u00fat lui. \u0110\u00f4i khi, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y di\u1ec5n ra d\u01b0\u1edbi h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c di c\u01b0 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c, nh\u01b0 James C. Scott \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra trong cu\u1ed1n \u201cThe Art of Not Being Governed (Ngh\u1ec7 Thu\u1eadt \u0110\u1ec3 Kh\u00f4ng B\u1ecb Qu\u1ea3n L\u00fd)\u201d, nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng v\u1ec1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi Zomia \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1. Ho\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 s\u1ed1ng chung m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c, nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi Scotland \u1edf Anh hay ng\u01b0\u1eddi Catalan \u1edf T\u00e2y Ban Nha. Nh\u01b0ng trong m\u1ed9t x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trang b\u1ecb t\u1ed1t, v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng l\u00e2u d\u00e0i v\u1ec1 m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y v\u1ec1 n\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn, ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u00e0 xung \u0111\u1ed9t b\u1ea1o l\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00f3 l\u1ebd m\u1ecdi chuy\u1ec7n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00e1c n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 c\u01a1 quan T\u00ecnh b\u00e1o Li\u00ean qu\u00e2n Pakistan kh\u00f4ng \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 Taliban khi h\u1ecd b\u1ecb \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng m\u00e1y bay kh\u00f4ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e1i c\u1ee7a NATO kh\u00f4ng c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m xa c\u00e1ch d\u00e2n c\u01b0, v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp tinh hoa Afghanistan \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c M\u1ef9 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 kh\u00f4ng tham nh\u0169ng phung ph\u00ed. Nh\u01b0ng m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cnh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft\u201d c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o M\u1ef9 l\u1ebd ra n\u00ean bi\u1ebft r\u00f5 h\u01a1n. Nh\u01b0 Melissa Dell v\u00e0 Pablo Querub\u00edn ghi l\u1ea1i, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam, v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3n t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ngo\u1ea1n m\u1ee5c. Nh\u1eefng n\u01a1i b\u1ecb n\u00e9m bom nh\u1eb1m khu\u1ea5t ph\u1ee5c Vi\u1ec7t C\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed5i d\u1eady ch\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd h\u01a1n l\u00e0 tr\u1ea3i nghi\u1ec7m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 \u1edf Iraq. Nh\u01b0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a Eli Berman, Jacob Shapiro v\u00e0 Joseph Felter ch\u1ec9 ra, \u201c\u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng\u201d \u1edf \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00e1i tim v\u00e0 t\u00e2m tr\u00ed b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch g\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 t\u1eeb c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i v\u1edbi Ali Cheema, Asim Khwaja v\u00e0 James Robinson cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng \u1edf v\u00f9ng n\u00f4ng th\u00f4n Pakistan, ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00ecm \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n phi nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc khi h\u1ecd ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u00e0 xa l\u1ea1 v\u1edbi h\u1ecd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c r\u00fat qu\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n. Nh\u01b0ng sau 20 n\u0103m n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c sai l\u1ea7m, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1eb5n ph\u1ea3i th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i trong hai m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau: r\u00fat kh\u1ecfi Afghanistan v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e1p lu\u1eadt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ea3m k\u1ecbch nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea1o to l\u1edbn. Ngay c\u1ea3 khi Taliban kh\u00f4ng quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u1ef1c h\u00e0nh t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, \u0111\u00e0n \u00f4ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 ph\u1ee5 n\u1eef Afghanistan s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 gi\u00e1 cao cho nh\u1eefng th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m v\u00e0 th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n: Daron Acemoglu, \u201cWhy Nation-Building Failed in Afghanistan\u201d, Project Syndicate, 20\/8\/2021. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: Phong tr\u00e0o Duy T\u00e2n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 M\u1ef9 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd vi\u1ec7c r\u00fat qu\u00e2n kh\u1ecfi Afghanistan t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng th\u1ea3m k\u1ecbch \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra trong th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh trong su\u1ed1t 20 n\u0103m. Ngay t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u, M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u2013 v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd xem x\u00e9t l\u1ea1i \u2013 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1eeb tr\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng, m\u00e0 v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1eb5n \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,3,8,15],"tags":[57],"class_list":["post-590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chau-a","category-chinh-tri","category-dan-chu-hoa","category-the-gioi","tag-daron-acemoglu"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=590"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}