{"id":500,"date":"2024-10-07T03:55:22","date_gmt":"2024-10-07T03:55:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/phongtraoduytan.com\/?p=500"},"modified":"2024-10-07T03:55:22","modified_gmt":"2024-10-07T03:55:22","slug":"ngay-tan-cua-nen-kinh-te-chien-tranh-nga-dang-den-gan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/?p=500","title":{"rendered":"Ng\u00e0y t\u00e0n c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn tranh Nga \u0111ang \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

T\u00e1c gi\u1ea3: Anders \u00c5slund<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V<\/em>\u1edb<\/em>i cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn x\u00e2m l<\/em>\u01b0\u1ee3<\/em>c Ukraine c\u1ee7a Vladimir Putin s\u1eafp b<\/em>\u01b0\u1edb<\/em>c sang n\u0103m th<\/em>\u1ee9<\/em> ba, nh<\/em>\u1eef<\/em>ng r\u00e0o c\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 nh\u00e2n kh\u1ea9u h\u1ecdc m\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Nga \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng h<\/em>\u01a1<\/em>n nhi\u1ec1u so v<\/em>\u1edb<\/em>i nh<\/em>\u1eef<\/em>ng g\u00ec m\u1ecdi ng<\/em>\u01b0\u1edd<\/em>i th<\/em>\u01b0\u1edd<\/em>ng hi\u1ec3u. Tr\u00e1i ng<\/em>\u01b0\u1ee3<\/em>c v<\/em>\u1edb<\/em>i nh<\/em>\u1eef<\/em>ng g\u00ec \u0110i\u1ec7n Kremlin mu\u1ed1n ng<\/em>\u01b0\u1edd<\/em>i kh\u00e1c tin t<\/em>\u01b0\u1edf<\/em>ng, th<\/em>\u1edd<\/em>i gian kh\u00f4ng \u0111<\/em>\u1ee9<\/em>ng v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda Nga.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

STOCKHOLM – T\u1eeb n\u0103m 2014 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2022, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Nga \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 v\u1ec1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang r\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c nhau. T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Nga Vladimir Putin v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u00e2n t\u00edn c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng khoe khoang r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t l\u00e0m cho Nga m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng ng\u1eebng k\u00eau g\u1ecdi d\u1ee1 b\u1ecf m\u1ecdi h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng, trong khi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c l\u1ea1i l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 do c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t qu\u00e1 y\u1ebfu \u1edbt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i, ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m 2-3% GDP c\u1ee7a Nga m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, \u0111\u1ea9y Nga v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 s\u1ebd t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Putin, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng ta \u1edf Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1ea1i H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u Yalta \u1edf Kyiv v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 14 th\u00e1ng 9, T\u01b0\u1edbng Kyrylo Budanov c\u1ee7a Ukraine \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e1o c\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 Ukraine \u0111\u00e3 thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a Nga cho th\u1ea5y \u0110i\u1ec7n Kremlin mu\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ec1 ngh\u1ecb h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2025 v\u00ec c\u00e1c l\u00fd do kinh t\u1ebf. D\u00f9 th\u00f4ng tin n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u0111\u00fang hay kh\u00f4ng, k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. Nh\u1eefng r\u00e0o c\u1ea3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 nh\u00e2n kh\u1ea9u h\u1ecdc m\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Nga \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec3u, v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Putin \u0111\u00e3 ghi d\u1ea5u trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 t\u00e0n b\u1ea1o v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ngu ng\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 tr\u00ean chi\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o, Nga s\u1ebd l\u00e0 k\u1ebb thua cu\u1ed9c l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t. Chi\u1ebfn tranh r\u1ea5t t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Nga ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trung b\u00ecnh 1% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y chi\u1ebfm gi\u1eef l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 Ukraine m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch phi ph\u00e1p v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2014. GDP c\u1ee7a Nga \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 2,3 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2013 xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 1,9 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD hi\u1ec7n nay. Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00e0 si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng, Nga gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t “tr\u1ea1m x\u0103ng gi\u1ea3 d\u1ea1ng qu\u1ed1c gia”, nh\u01b0 c\u1ed1 Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngh\u1ecb s\u0129 Hoa K\u1ef3 John McCain \u0111\u00e3 m\u00f4 t\u1ea3. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady c\u1ee7a Nga \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. C\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111ang t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Nga l\u00e0 qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i v\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng li\u00ean quan, n\u01a1i c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty qu\u1ed1c doanh b\u00e1n cho nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t (c\u00f3 l\u1ebd \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb th\u1ed5i ph\u1ed3ng). Ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ee9ng y\u00ean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u00e2y ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y \u1edf Li\u00ean X\u00f4, n\u01a1i nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf Grigory Khanin v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 b\u00e1o Vasily Selyunin \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ra l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1ea9n l\u00ean t\u1edbi kho\u1ea3ng 3% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m. M\u1ed9t d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng \u1ea5y hi\u1ec7n nay l\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Nga duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 19% trong khi tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t h\u00e0ng n\u0103m ch\u1ec9 \u1edf m\u1ee9c 9,1%. Kh\u00f4ng ai n\u00ean tin v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y. R\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ch\u1ee9c tr\u00e1ch \u0111ang che gi\u1ea5u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1ea9n c\u0169ng cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec gi\u1edbi quan s\u00e1t \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1. \u0110\u00fang l\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng n\u1ee3 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i c\u1ee7a Nga \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 729 t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2013 xu\u1ed1ng ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n 303 t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2024, v\u00e0 n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd ch\u1ec9 chi\u1ebfm 14% GDP. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng gi\u00fap \u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u v\u00ec Nga kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 vay m\u01b0\u1ee3n \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i. Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i s\u1ed1ng d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o ngu\u1ed3n thu thu\u1ebf v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef, trong khi m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb \u0111\u00f3ng b\u0103ng trong c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c ph\u00e1p l\u00fd c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 2 n\u0103m 2022. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef kh\u1ea3 d\u1ee5ng trong Qu\u1ef9 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ee7a Nga \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 55 t\u1ef7 USD \u2013 chi\u1ebfm 2,8% GDP \u2013 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2024, t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec9nh l\u00e0 183 t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2021 v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn s\u1ed1 c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00ednh thanh kho\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf n\u00e0y, Nga bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng n\u0103m \u1edf m\u1ee9c 2% GDP k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u (2022-2024). V\u1edbi GDP 1,9 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD, th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn Nga m\u1ea5t kho\u1ea3ng 40 t\u1ef7 USD m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t v\u00e0o n\u0103m t\u1edbi, nh\u01b0 Budanov \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 Nga \u0111ang t\u0103ng thu\u1ebf thu nh\u1eadp c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n v\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng gi\u00fap \u00edch nhi\u1ec1u trong m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7 v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 b\u00e1n nhi\u1ec1u tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu trong n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y c\u0169ng \u0111ang ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c g\u00e2y t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn. Nga kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 b\u1ecb c\u00f4 l\u1eadp ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n m\u00e0 s\u1ef1 di c\u01b0 \u1ed3 \u1ea1t c\u1ee7a gi\u1edbi tr\u1ebb c\u00f3 h\u1ecdc th\u1ee9c, s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e0n \u00e1p ki\u1ec3u Li\u00ean X\u00f4 v\u00e0 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 tham nh\u0169ng c\u1ee7a Putin \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng l\u1ea1c h\u1eadu v\u1ec1 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7. \u0110i\u1ec7n Kremlin \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt c\u00e1c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch mua c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 b\u1ecb ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y c\u1ea5m t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c, Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc Trung \u00c1; nh\u01b0ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ea7n \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda nh\u1eefng k\u00eanh n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00f9ng l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3, xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u0169 kh\u00ed c\u1ee7a Nga \u0111\u00e3 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00ec Nga c\u1ea7n t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ch\u00fang \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 cho nhu c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh m\u00ecnh. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng x\u1ea5u h\u1ed5 l\u00e0 \u0110i\u1ec7n Kremlin \u0111\u00e3 bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u1ea1n ph\u00e1o t\u1eeb qu\u1ed1c gia l\u00e1ng gi\u1ec1ng c\u00f2n l\u1ea1c h\u1eadu h\u01a1n, Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 Nga v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u0169 kh\u00ed, nh\u01b0ng ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 k\u00e9m c\u1ecfi. C\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u0169 kh\u00ed c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c Qu\u1ed1c x\u00e3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 7 n\u0103m 1944 m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e1ng b\u1ecb n\u00e9m bom d\u1eef d\u1ed9i t\u1eeb ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, ch\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1edbi t\u1ea1o n\u00ean s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin c\u0169ng \u0111ang d\u1ea7n c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t qu\u00e2n s\u1ed1. \u01af\u1edbc t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 cho th\u1ea5y kho\u1ea3ng 120.000 binh s\u0129 Nga \u0111\u00e3 thi\u1ec7t m\u1ea1ng v\u00e0 180.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c b\u1ecb th\u01b0\u01a1ng. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 Putin v\u1eeba ra l\u1ec7nh cho qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Nga b\u1ed5 sung th\u00eam 180.000 binh s\u0129, nh\u01b0ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o l\u00e0 2,4% cho th\u1ea5y ngu\u1ed3n nh\u00e2n l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Nga \u0111\u00e3 r\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi Nga kh\u1ecfe m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00e3 r\u1eddi b\u1ecf \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc ch\u1ec9 ri\u00eang trong n\u0103m 2022, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi cho r\u1eb1ng Putin s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng d\u00e1m k\u00eau g\u1ecdi m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed9ng vi\u00ean l\u1edbn l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Khi t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c chi ph\u00ed \u1ea9n, Nga c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd chi kho\u1ea3ng 190 t\u1ef7 USD, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 10% GDP, cho cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn trong n\u0103m nay v\u00e0 con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 l\u1ebd \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh, x\u00e9t \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf t\u1eeb c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t b\u1edfi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y. Khi Nga kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch, h\u1ecd s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m chi ti\u00eau c\u00f4ng, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n chi ngo\u00e0i qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, Ukraine \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea7m ch\u00e2n Nga b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch chi kho\u1ea3ng 100 t\u1ef7 USD m\u1ed7i n\u0103m cho cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u2013 m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda t\u1eeb ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 n\u1eeda c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 t\u1eeb n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i. X\u00e9t r\u1eb1ng Nga tr\u1ea3 l\u01b0\u01a1ng cho binh s\u0129 (v\u00e0 gia \u0111\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t) cao h\u01a1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0 v\u0169 kh\u00ed c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd k\u00e9m ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, Ukraine c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1eafng cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn n\u1ebfu h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u00eam 50 t\u1ef7 USD m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 cho ph\u00e9p t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 b\u00ean trong l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 Nga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1ecbch thu 300 t\u1ef7 USD t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc Nga b\u1ecb \u0111\u00f3ng b\u0103ng. S\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Ukraine trong vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i k\u1ebb x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c to\u00e0n v\u1eb9n l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anders \u00c5slund l\u00e0 t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch \u201cCh\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a t<\/em>\u01b0<\/em> b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n h<\/em>\u1eef<\/em>u c\u1ee7a Nga: Con \u0111<\/em>\u01b0\u1edd<\/em>ng t<\/em>\u1eeb<\/em> kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr<\/em>\u01b0\u1edd<\/em>ng \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 tham nh\u0169ng\u201d (Nh\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Yale, 2019).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n: Anders \u00c5slund, “The Russian War Economy\u00b4s Days Are Numbered<\/a>“, Project Syndicate<\/em>, 1\/10\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: Phong tr\u00e0o Duy T\u00e2n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nh\u1eefng r\u00e0o c\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 nh\u00e2n kh\u1ea9u h\u1ecdc m\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Nga \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec3u. Tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0110i\u1ec7n Kremlin mu\u1ed1n ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c tin t\u01b0\u1edfng, th\u1eddi gian kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee9ng v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda Nga.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,7,26],"tags":[31],"class_list":["post-500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chinh-tri","category-cuoc-chien-nga-ukraine","category-nga","tag-anders-aslund"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/500","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=500"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/500\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=500"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=500"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=500"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}