{"id":413,"date":"2024-09-27T02:40:09","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T02:40:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/phongtraoduytan.com\/?p=413"},"modified":"2024-09-27T02:40:09","modified_gmt":"2024-09-27T02:40:09","slug":"cuoc-khung-hoang-nang-luc-ran-de-cua-my","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/?p=413","title":{"rendered":"Cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c r\u0103n \u0111e c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

T\u00e1c gi\u1ea3: Carter Malkasian<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u0103n \u0111e. Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111e d\u1ecda c\u00e1c t\u00e0u Philippines \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0110\u00e0i Loan. Nga kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u t\u1eeb b\u1ecf cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u1edf Ukraine. \u1ede Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, Iran \u0111ang \u0111e d\u1ecda tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a Israel v\u00ec v\u1ee5 \u00e1m s\u00e1t l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Hamas Ismail Haniyeh \u1edf Tehran, Hezbollah \u0111ang t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda v\u00e0o Israel, v\u00e0 Houthi ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng \u2013 v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f4i khi \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u00ecm \u2013 c\u00e1c t\u00e0u th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u1ecf. Nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda Iran c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ebft ch\u1ebft qu\u00e2n nh\u00e2n M\u1ef9, m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Houthi v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t t\u00e0u H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n M\u1ef9 ho\u1eb7c m\u1ed9t v\u1ee5 \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u00ecm t\u00e0u th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i s\u1ebd t\u0103ng theo th\u1eddi gian. B\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0o trong s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd bu\u1ed9c Washington ph\u1ea3i tham gia v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn l\u1edbn h\u01a1n ho\u1eb7c l\u00f9i b\u01b0\u1edbc. L\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0o c\u0169ng s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u0103n \u0111e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft r\u0103n \u0111e n\u1eb1m trong c\u00e1c b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 Chi\u1ebfn tranh L\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u01b0 Thomas Schelling, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n t\u1eeb Li\u00ean X\u00f4. C\u00e1c nguy\u00ean l\u00fd trung t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a r\u0103n \u0111e \u2013 s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra b\u1edfi vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o h\u1ee7y di\u1ec7t l\u1eabn nhau, r\u1ee7i ro leo thang v\u00e0 vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 li\u1ec1u l\u0129nh, v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n cam k\u1ebft v\u00e0 quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m \u2013 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh h\u1eefu \u00edch trong vi\u1ec7c ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 c\u00f3 v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n l\u1eabn th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n kh\u00e1c. Ch\u00fang \u00edt h\u1eefu \u00edch h\u01a1n trong vi\u1ec7c ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n. V\u00e0 khi n\u00f3i \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 th\u1ec3 phi nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft r\u0103n \u0111e \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n v\u00f4 d\u1ee5ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kh\u00f4ng n\u01a1i n\u00e0o cho th\u1ea5y \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y r\u00f5 h\u01a1n l\u00e0 \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, n\u01a1i Iran v\u00e0 m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c c\u0103n c\u1ee9 v\u00e0 qu\u00e2n nh\u00e2n M\u1ef9, \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u00ecm t\u00e0u th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o Israel v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u00e2m ng\u00f2i cho m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn khu v\u1ef1c l\u1edbn h\u01a1n. N\u1ebfu Washington mu\u1ed1n ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u0103n \u0111e \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c, h\u1ecd s\u1ebd c\u1ea7n th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n n\u1eefa. T\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o Hezbollah v\u00e0 Houthi s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7; c\u00e1ch duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u0103n \u0111e l\u00e0 nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o Iran. C\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng M\u1ef9 n\u00ean tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p tr\u1ea3 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda c\u1ee7a Iran g\u00e2y h\u1ea1i cho qu\u00e2n nh\u00e2n v\u00e0 d\u00e2n th\u01b0\u1eddng M\u1ef9. Washington n\u00ean b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u cho Tehran r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c g\u00e2y thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i cho c\u00e1c t\u00e0u c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c t\u00e0u kh\u00e1c \u0111i qua Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u1ecf s\u1ebd b\u1ecb \u0111\u00e1p tr\u1ea3 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0o t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n ho\u1eb7c l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a Iran. Qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng n\u00ean b\u1ed1 tr\u00ed l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng theo c\u00e1ch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Iran \u2013 nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m khi Iran b\u1eafn m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t drone v\u00e0 t\u00ean l\u1eeda v\u00e0o Israel h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng t\u01b0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c M\u1ef9 cho r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean Iran theo nh\u1eefng c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro, h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua c\u01a1n b\u00e3o, ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i chi\u1ebfn tranh \u1edf D\u1ea3i Gaza v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng khu v\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i k\u1ebft th\u00fac, chuy\u1ec3n s\u1ef1 ch\u00fa \u00fd c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd sang Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 Nga v\u00e0 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o b\u1ee9c tranh l\u1edbn h\u01a1n. X\u00e9t cho c\u00f9ng, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng Qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Biden \u0111\u00e3 n\u00eau r\u00f5 r\u1eb1ng qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 c\u1ea7n t\u1eadp trung tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft v\u00e0o Trung Qu\u1ed1c. M\u1ed9t l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn nh\u01b0 v\u1eady s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o ra nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a ri\u00eang n\u00f3: c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng li\u00ean t\u1ee5c v\u00e0o Israel, ng\u0103n tr\u1edf th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf b\u1ecb suy gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u0103n \u0111e, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 xem s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 x\u1ee9ng \u0111\u00e1ng hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o h\u1ee7y di\u1ec7t l\u1eabn nhau<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc n\u0103m 1945, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u0103n \u0111e kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh trong nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u1ec1 chi\u1ebfn tranh. C\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y trong c\u00e1c t\u00e1c ph\u1ea9m c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u01b0 Niccol\u00f2 Machiavelli v\u00e0 Carl von Clausewitz. Nh\u01b0ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1940, v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gia nh\u01b0 Schelling, Bernard Brodie v\u00e0 Albert Wohlstetter b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u1ee7a l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft r\u0103n \u0111e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft r\u0103n \u0111e h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u1ea3 hai b\u00ean \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tung ra m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a mang t\u00ednh h\u1ee7y di\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p tr\u1ea3 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7, m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201c\u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o h\u1ee7y di\u1ec7t l\u1eabn nhau\u201d (mutually assured destruction \u2013 ND). Trung Qu\u1ed1c, Ph\u00e1p, Nga, Anh v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 s\u1edf h\u1eefu kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng n\u00e0y. T\u00ean l\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea1o li\u00ean l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba, t\u00e0u ng\u1ea7m, h\u1ea7m ch\u1ee9a v\u00e0 b\u1ec7 ph\u00f3ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda di \u0111\u1ed9ng khi\u1ebfn b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0o trong s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c n\u00e0y c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ti\u00eau di\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 m\u00e0 b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb ti\u00eau di\u1ec7t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leo thang l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u khi c\u1ea3 hai b\u00ean \u0111\u1ec1u s\u1edf h\u1eefu v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n. Trong cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch Arms and Influence<\/em> xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n n\u0103m 1966, Schelling l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 n\u00e0o c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u00f4 t\u00ecnh d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n. Schelling vi\u1ebft: \u201c\u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 mang t\u00ednh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n, ho\u1eb7c ph\u1ecfng \u0111o\u00e1n. Kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ri\u00eang.\u201d C\u1ea3 hai b\u00ean \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u1ecbu r\u1ee7i ro. M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Trung Qu\u1ed1c ho\u1eb7c Nga m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng mang l\u1ea1i cho ch\u00ednh m\u00ecnh nguy c\u01a1 m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 v\u01b0\u1ee3t kh\u1ecfi t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t. Nh\u01b0 nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Li\u00ean X\u00f4 Nikita Khrushchev \u0111\u00e3 vi\u1ebft cho T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 John F. Kennedy v\u00e0o l\u00fac cao \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda Cuba:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean k\u00e9o c\u0103ng s\u1ee3i d\u00e2y chi\u1ebfn tranh m\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 th\u1eaft n\u00fat, b\u1edfi v\u00ec ch\u00fang ta c\u00e0ng k\u00e9o, n\u00fat th\u1eaft c\u00e0ng ch\u1eb7t. V\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t l\u00fac n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 n\u00fat th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c ngay c\u1ea3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1eaft n\u00f3 c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 s\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00e1o ra, v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i c\u1eaft \u0111\u1ee9t n\u00fat th\u1eaft \u0111\u00f3, v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 g\u00ec th\u00ec t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch cho \u00f4ng, b\u1edfi v\u00ec ch\u00ednh \u00f4ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 nh\u1eefng ngu\u1ed3n v\u0169 l\u1ef1c kh\u1ee7ng khi\u1ebfp m\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c gia ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang n\u1eafm gi\u1eef.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch r\u0103n \u0111e d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o h\u1ee7y di\u1ec7t l\u1eabn nhau \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng \u0111\u00f3. C\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng ho\u1eb7c ch\u1ecbu m\u1ed9t chi ph\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 d\u1ea5u v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t cam k\u1ebft. Nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3i th\u00ec d\u1ec5. M\u1ed9t h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n l\u1eddi n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 quan t\u00e2m m\u00e0 M\u1ef9 d\u00e0nh cho v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. Do nguy c\u01a1 leo thang, ngay c\u1ea3 m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1ecf c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 r\u1ea5t nguy hi\u1ec3m v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m l\u1edbn. Vi\u1ec7c b\u1ed1 tr\u00ed l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng, m\u1ed9t m\u00e1y bay bay v\u00f9 v\u00f9 qua t\u00e0u chi\u1ebfn ho\u1eb7c t\u00e0u h\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n \u0111i qua g\u1ea7n v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ec1u t\u1ea1o ra nguy c\u01a1 leo thang. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Li\u00ean X\u00f4 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u00fa \u00fd c\u1ea9n th\u1eadn \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady v\u00ec h\u1ecd nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng nguy hi\u1ec3m k\u00e9o theo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u00e1t \u0111i nh\u1eefng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u01b0ng Schelling v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f9ng th\u1eddi v\u1edbi \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft r\u0103n \u0111e \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia phi h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n \u2013 v\u00e0 khi c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng n\u00f3 theo c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00f3, k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u1ea5t k\u00e9m. V\u00e0o n\u0103m 1964 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 1965, ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Johnson \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng t\u01b0 duy c\u1ee7a Schelling l\u00ean B\u1eafc Vi\u1ec7t Nam, th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch t\u0103ng d\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ec3 cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i l\u1edbn h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i kh\u00f4ng l\u00f9i b\u01b0\u1edbc. Nh\u01b0ng m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng di\u1ec5n ra nh\u01b0 Washington mong \u0111\u1ee3i. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a B\u1eafc Vi\u1ec7t Nam kh\u00f4ng tin r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 h\u1ecd; h\u1ecd s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng ch\u1ecbu t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh chi\u1ebfn tranh \u1edf mi\u1ec1n Nam Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Khi \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c phi h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda h\u1ee7y di\u1ec7t l\u1eabn nhau b\u1ecb gi\u1ea3m \u0111i r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u. M\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi r\u1ea5t \u00edt nguy c\u01a1 x\u1ea3y ra th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 do s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u0169 l\u1ef1c theo \u00fd mu\u1ed1n. Trong m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c Iraq c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 n\u0103m 2003, vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o h\u1ee7y di\u1ec7t l\u1eabn nhau cho ph\u00e9p m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 M\u1ef9, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 cao m\u00e0 \u00edt quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng leo thang. Nh\u01b0ng trong c\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p kh\u00e1c, n\u1ed7i s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia phi h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1edf \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cho m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 c\u00f3 v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n tham chi\u1ebfn, nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u00e0 ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n M\u1ef9 lo ng\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra trong Chi\u1ebfn tranh Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean v\u00e0 Chi\u1ebfn tranh Vi\u1ec7t Nam. V\u00e0 trong m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p, chi ph\u00ed v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u01a1ng vong c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn tranh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 qu\u00e1 cao. Vi\u1ec7c r\u0103n \u0111e m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c phi h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n l\u00e0 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n v\u00ec \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 phi h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cho r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng ch\u1ecbu chi ph\u00ed c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ec3 r\u0103n \u0111e Trung Qu\u1ed1c ho\u1eb7c Nga kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Iran ho\u1eb7c m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia phi h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n kh\u00e1c v\u00ec trong nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, M\u1ef9 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nguy c\u01a1 b\u1ecb tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u. M\u1ed9t h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u00e0 Washington th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Trung Qu\u1ed1c ho\u1eb7c Nga c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t r\u1ee7i ro, nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Iran th\u00ec s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng. B\u1eafc Kinh ho\u1eb7c Moscow c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd coi m\u1ed9t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c tri\u1ec3n khai m\u1ed9t t\u00e0u H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n M\u1ef9 g\u1ea7n v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea9y c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng l\u00ean r\u1ea5t cao, m\u1ed9t d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y M\u1ef9 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u v\u00e0 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn r\u1ee7i ro tai n\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c giao tranh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc v\u1ec1 h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n. Nh\u01b0ng khi chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Iran, M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nguy c\u01a1 x\u1ea3y ra th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n. Do \u0111\u00f3, Tehran c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch n\u00f3 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng. Khi \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia phi h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1ecf b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u r\u1eb1ng chi ph\u00ed ho\u1eb7c l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng x\u1ee9ng \u0111\u00e1ng; n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00ec l\u00fd do n\u00e0y, M\u1ef9 ph\u1ea3i th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i l\u1edbn h\u01a1n khi \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 phi h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n nh\u01b0 Iran. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i l\u1edbn, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 ho\u1eb7c ti\u00eau di\u1ec7t l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a k\u1ebb th\u00f9, kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o s\u1ebd ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c phi h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n nh\u01b0 Iran. N\u1ebfu c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c phi h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n tin t\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng cam k\u1ebft gi\u00e0nh chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, th\u00ec m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i l\u1edbn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 l\u1eeba b\u1ecbp ho\u1eb7c ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u00f2n gi\u00e1ng n\u1eefa trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn ti\u00eau hao \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra. V\u00e0 n\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i l\u1edbn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh g\u00e2y h\u1ea5n, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9, m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c phi h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n tuy\u1ec7t v\u1ecdng, v\u00ec lo ng\u1ea1i cho s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n vong c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh m\u00ecnh, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ecdn leo thang h\u01a1n l\u00e0 nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9. Ukraine th\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u v\u1edbi Nga h\u01a1n l\u00e0 nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9, tin r\u1eb1ng nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9 s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Moscow v\u00e0 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn b\u1ecb chinh ph\u1ee5c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong m\u1ed9t tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i li\u1ec1u l\u0129nh ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia phi h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, M\u1ef9 ph\u1ea3i g\u1eedi nh\u1eefng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n cam k\u1ebft v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a ho\u1eb7c tri\u1ec3n khai t\u00e0u s\u00e2n bay v\u00e0 t\u00e0u ng\u1ea7m trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eafn h\u1ea1 m\u00e1y bay c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u00ecm t\u00e0u c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u00e0 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m \u1edf Syria n\u0103m 2017 v\u00e0 trong \u201ccu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn t\u00e0u ch\u1edf d\u1ea7u\u201d nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1980 \u1edf V\u1ecbnh Ba T\u01b0. Khi \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng, M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u1eedi m\u1ed9t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ee9ng v\u1eefng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00f9i n\u00f3. Vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 Israel tr\u01b0\u1edbc kho\u1ea3ng 300 t\u00ean l\u1eeda v\u00e0 m\u00e1y bay kh\u00f4ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e1i v\u0169 trang c\u1ee7a Iran h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 4 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh cam k\u1ebft c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng minh. Israel v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u1eb7n g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c t\u00ean l\u1eeda v\u00e0 drone c\u1ee7a Iran, cho th\u1ea5y kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a c\u1ee7a Tehran \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 leo thang c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi suy ngh\u0129 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y. Trong h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7, Iran ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o t\u00ean l\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Israel. Nh\u01b0 Frank McKenzie, ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u1eebng l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 huy c\u1ee7a B\u1ed9 T\u01b0 l\u1ec7nh Trung t\u00e2m M\u1ef9 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2019 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2022, \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i trong cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch The Melting Point<\/em> c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 ho\u1eb7c Israel v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a Iran \u201cch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb ph\u00eda Iran\u201d trong \u201cm\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u2018h\u1ecfa l\u1ef1c\u2019 \u0111\u1eabm m\u00e1u v\u00e0 b\u1ea1o l\u1ef1c, n\u01a1i c\u00e1c c\u0103n c\u1ee9 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n b\u00e8 trong khu v\u1ef1c s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau.\u201d Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c v\u1ee5 \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u1eb7n h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 4 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1eb7t ra nghi ng\u1edd v\u1ec1 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng r\u0103n \u0111e n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng c\u1ee7a Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean Iran<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft r\u0103n \u0111e t\u1ecf ra \u00edt h\u1eefu \u00edch nh\u1ea5t khi \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 th\u1ec3 phi nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u01b0 Hezbollah v\u00e0 Houthi. C\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng du k\u00edch thi\u1ebfu c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cao t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia. V\u00e0 b\u1edfi v\u00ec c\u00e1c \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb du k\u00edch di chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0 \u1ea9n gi\u1ea5u t\u1ed1t, n\u00ean c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda m\u00e0 h\u1ecd s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 b\u1ecb ti\u00eau di\u1ec7t. C\u00e1c th\u1ee7 l\u0129nh du k\u00edch c\u0169ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u1ef1ng r\u1ee7i ro c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n cao, v\u00ec nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi mong \u0111\u1ee3i ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed mong mu\u1ed1n tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh li\u1ec7t s\u0129, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda b\u1ecb gi\u1ebft trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 tr\u1edf n\u00ean y\u1ebfu \u1edbt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed ti\u00eau di\u1ec7t c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c du k\u00edch v\u00e0 kh\u1ee7ng b\u1ed1 th\u00f4ng qua s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd, kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch v\u00e0 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng drone, c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t v\u00e0 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed9t k\u00edch ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o (c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 ISIS) v\u00e0 al Qaeda v\u00e0 k\u00ecm h\u00e3m Taliban trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7. Hezbollah v\u00e0 Houthi d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, v\u00e0 v\u00ec h\u1ecd \u1edf g\u1ea7n bi\u1ec3n n\u00ean nhu c\u1ea7u M\u1ef9 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c c\u0103n c\u1ee9 \u0111\u1eaft ti\u1ec1n tr\u00ean b\u1edd s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt. Nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 th\u1eddi gian, \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 bao g\u1ed3m m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1ee7y di\u1ec7t kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ecf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady s\u1ebd l\u00e0 g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, Iran, b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch truy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea1t r\u1eb1ng s\u1ebd c\u00f3 h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda v\u00e0 rocket v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c. H\u01b0\u1edbng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o: Tehran s\u1ebd ph\u1ee7 nh\u1eadn vi\u1ec7c c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0 c\u00e1o bu\u1ed9c M\u1ef9 leo thang, v\u00e0 Hezbollah v\u00e0 Houthi c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i \u00edch ri\u00eang v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng nghe theo ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ea3o tr\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u1ea3 hai nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ec1u ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a Iran, v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c Tehran s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng tham chi\u1ebfn thay m\u1eb7t h\u1ecd c\u00f2n l\u00e2u m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y mang l\u1ea1i cho Iran \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec3 thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m n\u00e0y d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 x\u1ea3y ra, Tehran ph\u1ea3i hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 m\u00e0 h\u1ecd s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t n\u1ebfu h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd g\u00e2y h\u1ea1i cho l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng M\u1ef9. M\u1ef9 ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m r\u00f5 s\u1ef1 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a th\u00f4ng qua h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u1eddi n\u00f3i \u2013 v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i nh\u1ecf kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0m. Washington n\u00ean n\u00f3i r\u00f5 nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro m\u00e0 Iran ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t: chi\u1ebfn tranh to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u00e0 thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i cho c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i \u00edch s\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n c\u1ee7a Iran. Ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Biden n\u00ean th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o cho Tehran r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd s\u1ebd \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u1eb7n b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 t\u00ean l\u1eeda n\u00e0o nh\u1eb1m v\u00e0o Israel, r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd s\u1ebd tr\u1ea3 th\u00f9 n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 c\u00f3 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n M\u1ef9 n\u00e0o thi\u1ec7t m\u1ea1ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda c\u1ee7a Houthi \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u1ecf ph\u1ea3i d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 m\u1ed9t t\u00ean l\u1eeda n\u00e0o t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng m\u1ed9t con t\u00e0u, m\u1ecdi v\u1ee5 ph\u00f3ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda ch\u1ed1ng h\u1ea1m c\u1ee7a Houthi n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1p tr\u1ea3 b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Iran. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1edf d\u1ea1ng ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t b\u00ean trong l\u00e3nh h\u1ea3i Iran, b\u1eafn c\u1ea3nh c\u00e1o v\u00e0o c\u00e1c t\u00e0u c\u1ee7a Iran ho\u1eb7c ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed5 b\u1ed9 l\u00ean c\u00e1c t\u00e0u th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111ang bu\u00f4n l\u1eadu v\u0169 kh\u00ed c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y. L\u1ea7u N\u0103m G\u00f3c c\u0169ng n\u00ean ngh\u0129 ra nh\u1eefng c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c s\u00e1ng t\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ec3 cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a Iran c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb h\u01b0 h\u1ea1i ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 th\u00f4ng qua chi\u1ebfn tranh m\u1ea1ng ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t. Washington ph\u1ea3i c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch g\u1eedi l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ebfn Trung \u0110\u00f4ng. Vi\u1ec7c T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Joe Biden g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y tri\u1ec3n khai hai t\u00e0u s\u00e2n bay, t\u00e0u khu tr\u1ee5c t\u00ean l\u1eeda d\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng, m\u00e1y bay chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u F-22 v\u00e0 t\u00e0u ng\u1ea7m mang t\u00ean l\u1eeda d\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i \u0111\u00e1ng hoan ngh\u00eanh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, M\u1ef9 n\u00ean ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ki\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch gi\u00fap Israel ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 t\u00ean l\u1eeda. L\u00e0m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n cam k\u1ebft v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u1ee7a Iran. Nh\u1edd th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c t\u00ean l\u1eeda c\u1ee7a Iran, M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Israel hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang \u1edf v\u1ecb th\u1ebf m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 r\u0103n \u0111e Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y c\u00f3 v\u1ebb qu\u00e1 cao v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m sao l\u00e3ng c\u00e1c \u01b0u ti\u00ean kh\u00e1c, M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 r\u00fat lui. M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng n\u00f3i g\u00ec v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda v\u00e0o Israel v\u00e0, \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt nguy c\u01a1 leo thang mang t\u00ednh tai n\u1ea1n, h\u00e3y lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n h\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n v\u00e0 khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch giao th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng \u0111i qua Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u1ecf. \u0110\u00e2y s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean Israel ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda c\u1ee7a Hezbollah. C\u0169ng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u1ecf b\u1ecb \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi giao th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i. K\u00eanh \u0111\u00e0o Suez \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng b\u1ecb \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1967 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 1975 trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh gi\u1eefa Ai C\u1eadp v\u00e0 Israel. M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn m\u1ed9t t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng Gaza l\u1eafng d\u1ecbu. C\u00e1c chi ph\u00ed ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u00f3 bao g\u1ed3m nhi\u1ec1u cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng h\u01a1n v\u00e0o Israel, suy gi\u1ea3m th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng b\u1ecb suy y\u1ebfu. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 tr\u00e1nh b\u1ecb sa l\u1ea7y \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng trong khi b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n s\u1ef1 x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c, Washington ph\u1ea3i nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 r\u0103n \u0111e \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro kh\u00f4ng mong mu\u1ed1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carter Malkasian l\u00e0 Tr\u01b0\u1edfng khoa Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng t\u1ea1i Naval Postgraduate School, Hoa K\u1ef3<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n:<\/strong>  Carter Malkasian, \u201cAmerica\u2019s Crisis of Deterrence<\/a>\u201d, Foreign Affairs<\/em>, 20\/08\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch:<\/strong> Vi\u00ean \u0110\u0103ng Huy | Hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u00ednh:<\/strong> Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ebf Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u1ea3n ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t<\/a> c\u1ee7a Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u0103n \u0111e. Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111e d\u1ecda c\u00e1c t\u00e0u Philippines \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0110\u00e0i Loan. Nga kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u t\u1eeb b\u1ecf cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u1edf Ukraine. \u1ede Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, Iran \u0111ang \u0111e d\u1ecda tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a Israel v\u00ec v\u1ee5 \u00e1m s\u00e1t l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Hamas Ismail Haniyeh \u1edf Tehran, Hezbollah \u0111ang t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda v\u00e0o Israel, v\u00e0 Houthi ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng \u2013 v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f4i khi \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u00ecm \u2013 c\u00e1c t\u00e0u th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u1ecf. Nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda Iran c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ebft ch\u1ebft qu\u00e2n nh\u00e2n M\u1ef9, m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Houthi v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t t\u00e0u H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n M\u1ef9 ho\u1eb7c m\u1ed9t v\u1ee5 \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u00ecm t\u00e0u th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i s\u1ebd t\u0103ng theo th\u1eddi gian. B\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0o trong s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd bu\u1ed9c Washington ph\u1ea3i tham gia v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn l\u1edbn h\u01a1n ho\u1eb7c l\u00f9i b\u01b0\u1edbc. L\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0o c\u0169ng s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u0103n \u0111e.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,25],"tags":[44],"class_list":["post-413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chinh-tri","category-hoa-ky","tag-carter-malkasian"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=413"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=413"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=413"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=413"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}