{"id":319,"date":"2024-09-11T03:44:04","date_gmt":"2024-09-11T03:44:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/phongtraoduytan.com\/?p=319"},"modified":"2024-09-11T03:44:04","modified_gmt":"2024-09-11T03:44:04","slug":"tai-sao-my-dang-dan-de-mat-dong-nam-a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/?p=319","title":{"rendered":"T\u1ea1i sao M\u1ef9 \u0111ang d\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ea5t \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00e1c gi\u1ea3: Lynn Kuok <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, M\u1ef9 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 \u201ch\u1ed9i t\u1ee5\u201d (convergence) v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c ch\u00e2u \u00c1. T\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ed1i tho\u1ea1i Shangri-La th\u01b0\u1eddng ni\u00ean \u1edf Singapore v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 6, B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng M\u1ef9 Lloyd Austin \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1eb7t ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1 cho b\u00e0i ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh l\u00e0 \u201cS\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 m\u1edbi \u1edf \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng\u201d. T\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7n Brookings v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng sau \u0111\u00f3, Ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng M\u1ef9 Antony Blinken kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 \u0111ang c\u00f3 \u201cs\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u\u201d v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c quan tr\u1ecdng \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c1, tr\u00edch d\u1eabn m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111ang c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n v\u1edbi Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c li\u00ean k\u1ebft an ninh ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd gi\u1eefa NATO v\u00e0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng. C\u0169ng trong th\u00e1ng 7, t\u1ea1i Di\u1ec5n \u0111\u00e0n An ninh Aspen, Antony Blinken nh\u1eafc l\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng \u00f4ng \u201cch\u01b0a t\u1eebng th\u1ea5y th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0o c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c ch\u00e2u \u00c1 kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eefng v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Nga, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt l\u00e0 M\u1ef9 \u0111ang m\u1ea5t d\u1ea7n v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u1edf nh\u1eefng khu v\u1ef1c quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c1. M\u1ed7i n\u0103m, Vi\u1ec7n ISEAS-Yusof Ishak \u2013 m\u1ed9t vi\u1ec7n nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu b\u1edfi ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Singapore nh\u01b0ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp \u2013 th\u0103m d\u00f2 \u00fd ki\u1ebfn t\u1eeb 1.000 \u0111\u1ebfn 2.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi thu\u1ed9c gi\u1edbi h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt, c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n, khu v\u1ef1c t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n, x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i d\u00e2n s\u1ef1, c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c phi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf t\u1eeb m\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ed1c gia th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean Hi\u1ec7p h\u1ed9i c\u00e1c Qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 (ASEAN). Cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t n\u00e0y l\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u g\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 \u201cquan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a gi\u1edbi tinh hoa\u201d \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn t\u1ed5ng quan v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tranh lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c chi ti\u1ebft c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. Trong cu\u1ed9c th\u0103m d\u00f2 n\u0103m nay, \u0111a s\u1ed1 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ecdn Trung Qu\u1ed1c nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n M\u1ef9 khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ASEAN n\u00ean li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi ai n\u1ebfu bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecdn gi\u1eefa hai n\u01b0\u1edbc. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi ch\u1ecdn Trung Qu\u1ed1c k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi n\u00e0y v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi M\u1ef9 n\u00e0y n\u00ean gi\u00f3ng l\u00ean h\u1ed3i chu\u00f4ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o \u1edf Washington, n\u01a1i coi Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 c\u1ea1nh tranh ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1eddng quan tr\u1ecdng. \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 n\u1eb1m \u1edf trung t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn v\u00e0 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 n\u01a1i c\u00f3 hai \u0111\u1ed3ng minh c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 (Philippines v\u00e0 Th\u00e1i Lan) v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c quan tr\u1ecdng. C\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u1edf \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng b\u1ecb c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf b\u1edfi vi\u1ec7c m\u1ea5t d\u1ea7n v\u1ecb th\u1ebf v\u00e0o tay Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Philippines v\u00e0 Singapore, n\u01a1i M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, s\u1ebd \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t quan tr\u1ecdng trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p x\u1ea3y ra xung \u0111\u1ed9t tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp gi\u1eefa Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 M\u1ef9, nh\u01b0ng ngay c\u1ea3 khi kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 chi\u1ebfn tranh, \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 v\u1eabn l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 trong vi\u1ec7c t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 \u0111a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c. Nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u1edf \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh d\u01b0 lu\u1eadn. Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u00f3m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u0103m d\u00f2 \u00fd ki\u1ebfn bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, v\u00e0 ngay c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 phi t\u1ef1 do hi\u1ec7n nay c\u0169ng c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u00e1nh m\u1ea5t th\u1ec3 di\u1ec7n<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 Joe Biden \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng quan h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi Philippines, \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o quy\u1ec1n ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn b\u1ed1n c\u01a1 s\u1edf qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 m\u1edbi v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2023. \u0110\u00e1p l\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 tham gia ngo\u1ea1i giao c\u1ea5p cao li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ec9nh \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u00e0 chuy\u1ebfn th\u0103m c\u1ee7a Biden t\u1edbi H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u0169ng ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi M\u1ef9 l\u00ean hai c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 th\u00e0nh \u201c\u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n\u201d \u2013 m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng, an ninh v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ebd t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e2u v\u1eabn c\u00f2n ph\u1ea3i ch\u1edd xem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng k\u00e9m hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n. Trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t n\u0103m 2020 \u2013 n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean Vi\u1ec7n ISEAS-Yusof Ishak h\u1ecfi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t \u201cN\u1ebfu ASEAN bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, th\u00ec n\u00ean ch\u1ecdn ai?\u201d \u2013 50,2% ch\u1ecdn M\u1ef9, so v\u1edbi 49,8% ch\u1ecdn Trung Qu\u1ed1c, khi c\u00e1c c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh (nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c th\u0103m d\u00f2 n\u0103m 2022) \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o r\u1eb1ng c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n theo t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 b\u1eb1ng nhau. N\u0103m 2023, 61% s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi ch\u1ecdn M\u1ef9 so v\u1edbi 39% ch\u1ecdn Trung Qu\u1ed1c, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 M\u1ef9 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng k\u00e9m h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh chung \u1edf Brunei, Indonesia, L\u00e0o, Malaysia v\u00e0 Th\u00e1i Lan. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t n\u0103m 2024, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua M\u1ef9 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c li\u00ean k\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c: 50,5% s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi ch\u1ecdn Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 49,5% ch\u1ecdn M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u0103m nay theo t\u1eebng qu\u1ed1c gia cho th\u1ea5y k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c th\u0103m d\u00f2 n\u0103m 2023, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ecb th\u1ebf nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0o tay Trung Qu\u1ed1c trong s\u1ed1 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi \u1edf L\u00e0o (gi\u1ea3m 30 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m), Malaysia (gi\u1ea3m 20 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m), Indonesia (gi\u1ea3m 20 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m), Campuchia (gi\u1ea3m 18 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m) v\u00e0 Brunei (gi\u1ea3m 15 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m). M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng m\u1ea5t v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u1edf Myanmar v\u00e0 Th\u00e1i Lan (l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t gi\u1ea3m 10 v\u00e0 9 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 r\u1ea5t cao \u1edf Philippines (n\u01a1i 83% s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi ch\u1ecdn M\u1ef9 h\u01a1n Trung Qu\u1ed1c) v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam (n\u01a1i 79% s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi ch\u1ecdn M\u1ef9) v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc \u1edf Singapore (62%), Myanmar (58%) v\u00e0 Campuchia (55%). Nh\u01b0ng ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 ba qu\u1ed1c gia m\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u01b0a th\u00edch c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi M\u1ef9 h\u01a1n Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u0103ng t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2023 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2024 \u2013 Philippines, Singapore v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u2013 v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng n\u00e0y l\u00e0 nh\u1ecf. V\u1edbi c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi, s\u1ef1 suy y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 lu\u00f4n l\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi \u2013 bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u2013 \u1edf nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, bao g\u1ed3m m\u1ed9t trong hai \u0111\u1ed3ng minh c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 (Th\u00e1i Lan) v\u00e0 hai trong b\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c m\u00e0 Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd h\u01a1n (Indonesia v\u00e0 Malaysia), hi\u1ec7n nay cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd s\u1ebd ch\u1ecdn Trung Qu\u1ed1c h\u01a1n M\u1ef9 n\u1ebfu bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 nh\u1ea5t \u1edf c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 \u0111a s\u1ed1 d\u00e2n theo \u0111\u1ea1o H\u1ed3i. Kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t n\u0103m 2024 cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u1ec1 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2023. 75% ng\u01b0\u1eddi Malaysia, 73% ng\u01b0\u1eddi Indonesia v\u00e0 70% ng\u01b0\u1eddi Brunei \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t cho bi\u1ebft h\u1ecd th\u00edch li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c h\u01a1n M\u1ef9, so v\u1edbi l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00e0 55%, 54% v\u00e0 55% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2023. Cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t kh\u00f4ng h\u1ecfi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao h\u1ecd \u0111\u01b0a ra l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0y. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng n\u00f3i l\u00e0 khi m\u1ed9t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi kh\u00e1c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi ch\u1ecdn ba m\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, g\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda x\u1ebfp h\u1ea1ng cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t Israel-Hamas \u1edf v\u1ecb tr\u00ed h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u, v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua 40% x\u1ebfp h\u1ea1ng tranh ch\u1ea5p Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng g\u1ea7n v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd nh\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Israel c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m nghi\u00eang c\u00e1n c\u00e2n sang c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t \u1edf c\u1ea3 ba qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 \u0111a s\u1ed1 d\u00e2n theo \u0111\u1ea1o H\u1ed3i \u0111\u1ec1u x\u1ebfp h\u1ea1ng cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t Israel-Hamas l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd: 83% ng\u01b0\u1eddi Malaysia, 79% ng\u01b0\u1eddi Brunei v\u00e0 75% ng\u01b0\u1eddi Indonesia \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ecdn ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n n\u00e0y. Singapore, n\u01a1i c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng thi\u1ec3u s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u00e3 Lai theo \u0111\u1ea1o H\u1ed3i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 (15% d\u00e2n s\u1ed1), c\u0169ng x\u1ebfp h\u1ea1ng cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t Israel-Hamas l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, v\u1edbi 58% s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi ch\u1ecdn ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u1ea9u th\u1ea3 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1c ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i trong khu v\u1ef1c. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i giao Indonesia m\u00e0 t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch gay g\u1eaft l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u1edf Gaza. M\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i giao c\u1ea5p cao c\u1ee7a Malaysia tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n r\u1eb1ng \u201cch\u00fang t\u00f4i s\u1ebd ch\u1ecdn Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00ec Gaza\u201d. Trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c tr\u00f2 chuy\u1ec7n ri\u00eang, m\u1ed9t quan ch\u1ee9c c\u1ea5p cao c\u1ee7a Malaysia gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch r\u1eb1ng m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 Malaysia t\u1eeb l\u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 theo \u0111u\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, nh\u01b0ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1ee9c gi\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Israel v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean; nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi Malaysia hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang t\u1ea9y chay th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u01a1ng hi\u1ec7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn v\u1edbi \u00e1nh m\u1eaft ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng thi\u1ec7n c\u1ea3m h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u1ec7c nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi \u1edf Campuchia cho bi\u1ebft h\u1ecd th\u00edch li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi M\u1ef9, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 s\u1ef1 \u01b0a th\u00edch \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m 18 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2023, c\u00f3 v\u1ebb \u0111\u00e1ng ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean, khi ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Campuchia \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 Trung Qu\u1ed1c m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ki\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh. Th\u1eadt v\u1eady, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi Campuchia b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0 t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n trong chuy\u1ebfn th\u0103m v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 3 cho bi\u1ebft h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 cao s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7. Tuy nhi\u00ean, ngay c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 cao n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 ra nh\u1eefng \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 m\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m cho Campuchia ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i d\u00e2n s\u1ef1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u00e1ng 6 v\u1eeba qua, B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng M\u1ef9 Austin \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u0103m Phnom Penh \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 quan h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi Campuchia n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ee5t l\u1ea1i xa so v\u1edbi quan h\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a B\u1eafc Kinh v\u1edbi n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y. V\u00e0o n\u0103m 2019, Campuchia \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn cho ph\u00e9p qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Trung Qu\u1ed1c ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u0103n c\u1ee9 h\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n Ream tr\u00ean b\u1edd bi\u1ec3n V\u1ecbnh Th\u00e1i Lan, mang l\u1ea1i cho Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 h\u1eadu c\u1ea7n \u2013 m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u1ea3 Phnom Penh v\u00e0 B\u1eafc Kinh \u0111\u1ec1u ph\u1ee7 nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u0103n c\u1ee9 n\u00e0y cho m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1. Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u0169ng \u0111\u00f3ng m\u1ed9t vai tr\u00f2 qu\u00e1 l\u1edbn trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Campuchia. Theo H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n Campuchia, m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 quan ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Campuchia ch\u1ecbu tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 5 chi\u1ebfm g\u1ea7n 50% t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a Campuchia; M\u1ef9 chi\u1ebfm ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m. V\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 8, Campuchia \u0111\u00e3 kh\u1edfi c\u00f4ng m\u1ed9t con k\u00eanh tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 1,7 t\u1ef7 USD do Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1ed1i Phnom Penh v\u1edbi V\u1ecbnh Th\u00e1i Lan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 Washington c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 h\u00e0o v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p quan h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 c\u00f9ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2008. Ba th\u00e1ng sau khi M\u1ef9 n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p quan h\u1ec7, H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i n\u00e2ng cao h\u01a1n n\u1eefa quan h\u1ec7 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Hai n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 36 th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c m\u1edbi, v\u00e0 H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 chung v\u1ec1 quan h\u1ec7 ngo\u1ea1i giao tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c m\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c mong mu\u1ed1n: c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t \u201cc\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng chung v\u1eadn m\u1ec7nh\u201d, m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch di\u1ec5n \u0111\u1ea1t m\u00e0 H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00e1nh trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m do lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 v\u00e0 r\u1eb1ng n\u00f3 s\u1ebd b\u1ecb coi l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ee9ng v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda Trung Qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0a tin v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng c\u00e1i b\u1eaby n\u1ee3 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn S\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn V\u00e0nh \u0111ai v\u00e0 Con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n BRI nh\u00ecn chung \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hoan ngh\u00eanh \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 v\u00ec ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u00e0 ch\u00fang mang l\u1ea1i cho qu\u1ed1c gia ti\u1ebfp nh\u1eadn. M\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i giao c\u1ea5p cao trong khu v\u1ef1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201ctr\u00e1i tim v\u00e0 kh\u1ed1i \u00f3c\u201d. V\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1, t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ebfn L\u00e0o, n\u01a1i di\u1ec5n ra cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp k\u00edn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c b\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng ngo\u1ea1i giao ASEAN t\u1ea1i Luang Prabang, trung t\u00e2m v\u0103n h\u00f3a v\u00e0 tinh th\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc. Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ea1nh tranh \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng gi\u1eefa Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 M\u1ef9; ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c bao tr\u00f9m cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n. C\u01b0 d\u00e2n Luang Prabang n\u00f3i t\u00edch c\u1ef1c v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2023, khi m\u1ed9t tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1eaft li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi BRI ch\u1ea1y qua th\u00e0nh ph\u1ed1 v\u00e0 k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i L\u00e0o v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd kh\u00e1ch s\u1ea1n ng\u01b0\u1eddi L\u00e0o, tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y t\u1eebng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 h\u00e0nh kh\u00e1ch v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a C\u00f4ng ty \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1eaft L\u00e0o-Trung Qu\u1ed1c do Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn, k\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 du kh\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e3 c\u1edfi gi\u00e0y v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u00fang tr\u00ean s\u00e2n ga tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi l\u00ean t\u00e0u. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n l\u00e0ng L\u00e0o, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean h\u1ecd \u0111i t\u00e0u. Nh\u1eefng giai tho\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e1ng y\u00eau n\u00e0y c\u0169ng mang \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t \u00fd ngh\u0129a s\u00e2u s\u1eafc h\u01a1n: \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c1, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1edfi gi\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi v\u00e0o nh\u00e0, v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi L\u00e0o r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y tho\u1ea3i m\u00e1i v\u1edbi tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1eaft do Trung Qu\u1ed1c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chi ph\u00ed \u1ea9n<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ef1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u0111ang c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 trong vi\u1ec7c ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 \u0111a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng trong khu v\u1ef1c m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a ASEAN \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng: b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng hung h\u0103ng c\u1ee7a B\u1eafc Kinh trong v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1eb7c quy\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Philippines trong n\u0103m qua, kh\u1ed1i n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0a ra tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 n\u00e0o ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u00edch danh Trung Qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u01b0ng vi\u1ec7c M\u1ef9 m\u1ea5t d\u1ea7n v\u1ecb th\u1ebf trong khu v\u1ef1c c\u0169ng l\u00e0m t\u1ed5n h\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ebfn v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u1edf nh\u1eefng n\u01a1i kh\u00e1c, cho d\u00f9 \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00ean \u00e1n cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c Ukraine c\u1ee7a Nga hay \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng. Nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i \u00edch qu\u1ed1c gia quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0o. Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c c\u00f3 thi\u1ec7n c\u1ea3m t\u1eeb c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 s\u1ebd gi\u00fap Washington thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c h\u1ecd v\u1ec1 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao m\u1ed9t l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho h\u1ecd. L\u1eddi k\u00eau g\u1ecdi c\u1ee7a Washington v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh vi vi ph\u1ea1m lu\u1eadt ph\u00e1p qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf tr\u1eafng tr\u1ee3n c\u1ee7a Nga \u2013 \u0111i\u1ec1u l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u2013 h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eafng nghe \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Nga ho\u1eb7c Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn. Nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n k\u00e9p trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u2013 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau v\u00ec l\u1ee3i \u00edch ri\u00eang khi n\u00f3i \u0111\u1ebfn Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u2013 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y. Khi nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o M\u1ef9 hi\u1ec7n nay, h\u1ecd th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia r\u1ed1i lo\u1ea1n trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ed9t ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh ngh\u1ecb s\u1ef1 v\u00ec l\u1ee3i \u00edch ri\u00eang m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch tr\u1eafng tr\u1ee3n \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ec3 l\u1ea5y l\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, M\u1ef9 n\u00ean tr\u00e1nh ph\u00f3ng \u0111\u1ea1i qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c ch\u00e2u \u00c1. Vi\u1ec7c nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 cho th\u1ea5y, trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t, Washington thi\u1ebfu nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u0111ang suy gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, v\u00e0 trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p x\u1ea5u nh\u1ea5t, \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u0111ang b\u1ecb b\u1ecf qua trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9. Washington c\u0169ng n\u00ean nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111ang gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c y\u00eau s\u00e1ch l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i ch\u1ed3ng l\u1ea5n v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng h\u00e0i l\u00f2ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a B\u1eafc Kinh \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, nh\u01b0ng tranh ch\u1ea5p n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00fang ngay c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Philippines: B\u1eafc Kinh v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a Manila b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch c\u01b0 x\u1eed t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c ngh\u0129a v\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh theo c\u00e1c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn BRI ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Washington ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u1edbi khu v\u1ef1c: \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 an ninh. Khi cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7n ISEAS-Yusof Ishak h\u1ecfi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia l\u00e0 \u201cc\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c kinh t\u1ebf n\u00e0o c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u1ea5t\u201d \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, g\u1ea7n 60% s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ecdn Trung Qu\u1ed1c, trong khi M\u1ef9 ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1t 14%. Sau chuy\u1ebfn th\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng M\u1ef9 t\u1edbi Campuchia, c\u1ea7n t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn kinh t\u1ebf, bao g\u1ed3m t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Campuchia Hun Manet, ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebf t\u1ee5c cha m\u00ecnh l\u00e0 Hun Sen, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t sinh vi\u00ean t\u1ed1t nghi\u1ec7p West Point v\u00e0 th\u00f4ng th\u1ea1o ti\u1ebfng Anh. Washington c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i l\u1eadt sang trang m\u1edbi sau m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 quan h\u1ec7 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng v\u00e0 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng li\u00ean k\u1ebft n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 can d\u1ef1 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi Phnom Penh nh\u1eb1m ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nhanh ch\u00f3ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u1edf Campuchia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1p tr\u1ea3 c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu l\u1ee3i \u00edch an ninh qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 ho\u1eb7c vi ph\u1ea1m nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng lu\u1eadt ph\u00e1p qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. Trong c\u1ea3 hai tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p, Washington n\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bi\u1ec7n minh r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng cho c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00fang sao cho t\u01b0\u01a1ng x\u1ee9ng v\u1edbi h\u00e0nh vi vi ph\u1ea1m c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y kh\u00f3 hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf 100% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi xe \u0111i\u1ec7n nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, l\u1ea1i c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft v\u00ec l\u00fd do an ninh qu\u1ed1c gia. C\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 lo ng\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng Washington \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft v\u00e0 g\u00e2y ra xung \u0111\u1ed9t M\u1ef9-Trung ho\u1eb7c gi\u00e1ng th\u00eam \u0111\u00f2n v\u00e0o tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i \u00edch cho h\u1ecd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ef9 mu\u1ed1n ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i th\u00f4ng tin sai l\u1ec7ch t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Nh\u01b0ng nh\u1eefng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c nh\u01b0 v\u1eady ph\u1ea3i gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n g\u1ed1c r\u1ec5 khi\u1ebfn ch\u00fang c\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edfng. Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201ck\u1ebb hi\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn h\u00e8n nh\u00e1t\u201d \u1edf Gaza; nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 m\u00e0 t\u00f4i m\u1edbi n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng theo \u0111\u1ea1o H\u1ed3i, cho bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00fang v\u1edbi h\u1ecd. Tuy nhi\u00ean, s\u1ef1 m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u01a1 s\u1edf n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i v\u00ec ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh Washington \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng \u1edf Gaza, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 ho\u1eb7c \u00edt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ng\u1ea7m \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e1 kh\u00edch nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u1ea5y l\u1ea1i v\u1ecb th\u1ebf m\u00e0 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n. C\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c, nh\u01b0ng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Washington s\u1ebd l\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i mong mu\u1ed1n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u1edbi M\u1ef9 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd th\u00e0nh l\u1ee3i \u00edch chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111ang b\u1ecb \u0111e d\u1ecda, Washington ph\u1ea3i c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ri\u00eang c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y. \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 s\u1ebd th\u1eadt ngu ng\u1ed1c n\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u1edbi M\u1ef9 tr\u1edf n\u00ean x\u1ea5u \u0111i. C\u00e2y d\u00f9 an ninh m\u00e0 M\u1ef9 cung c\u1ea5p \u0111\u00e3 mang l\u1ea1i h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng cho khu v\u1ef1c. N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c s\u1ebd b\u1ecb thu h\u1eb9p v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u01b0 x\u1eed t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n c\u0169ng v\u1eady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nhi\u1ec1u kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n m\u00e0 M\u1ef9 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 duy nh\u1ea5t. Ch\u00fang l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf kh\u00f3 x\u1eed l\u1edbn h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi M\u1ef9: c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 l\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a Nam b\u00e1n c\u1ea7u \u2013 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang t\u00edch c\u1ef1c l\u00f4i k\u00e9o \u2013 ho\u1eb7c \u00edt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n h\u1ecd tr\u01b0\u1ee3t v\u00e0o qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Nh\u01b0ng \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00ec n\u00f3 n\u1eb1m \u1edf trung t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t khu v\u1ef1c m\u00e0 Washington \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0 \u01b0u ti\u00ean. R\u1ed1t cu\u1ed9c, quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd th\u1eafng hay thua ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 \u1edf \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lynn Kuok l\u00e0 Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u vi\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1ec1 \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7n Brookings v\u00e0 l\u00e0 Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u vi\u00ean C\u1ea5p cao t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Cambridge.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n<\/strong>:  Lynn Kuok, \u201cAmerica Is Losing Southeast Asia<\/a>\u201d, Foreign Affairs<\/em>, 03\/08\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch:<\/strong> Vi\u00ean \u0110\u0103ng Huy | Hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u00ednh:<\/strong> Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ebf Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u1ea3n ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t<\/a> c\u1ee7a Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi M\u1ef9 n\u00e0y n\u00ean gi\u00f3ng l\u00ean h\u1ed3i chu\u00f4ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o \u1edf Washington, n\u01a1i coi Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 c\u1ea1nh tranh ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1eddng quan tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,3,25,11],"tags":[61,105],"class_list":["post-319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chau-a","category-chinh-tri","category-hoa-ky","category-quan-he-hoa-ky-trung-quoc","tag-dong-nam-a","tag-lynn-kuok"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/319","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=319"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/319\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}