M\u00f9a xu\u00e2n \u1ea2 R\u1eadp b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2011 sau h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef1 thi\u00eau c\u1ee7a Mahamed Bouazizi, m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u00e1n h\u00e0ng rong tr\u00ean ph\u1ed1 \u1edf Tu-ni-di. S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, ch\u00e2m ng\u00f2i cho h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed5i d\u1eady sau \u0111\u00f3 \u1edf Ai C\u1eadp, Yemen, Li-bi, Ba-ranh v\u00e0 Si-ri, v\u00e0 \u0111e do\u1ea1 s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 cai tr\u1ecb trong khu v\u1ef1c. Theo t\u01b0\u1eddng thu\u1eadt c\u1ee7a b\u00e1o ch\u00ed, Bouazizi \u0111\u00e3 v\u00e0i l\u1ea7n b\u1ecb c\u1ea3nh s\u00e1t t\u1ecbch thu g\u00e1nh h\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh; v\u00e0 khi anh ta ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng l\u1ea1i li\u1ec1n b\u1ecb \u0111\u00e1nh v\u00e0 s\u1ec9 nh\u1ee5c. L\u00f2ng t\u1ef1 tr\u1ecdng b\u1ecb kh\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1eeb, anh t\u1ef1 t\u1ea9m x\u0103ng v\u00e0o m\u00ecnh v\u00e0 t\u1ef1 thi\u00eau, cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng anh \u0111\u00e3 qua \u0111\u1eddi 2 tu\u1ea7n sau \u0111\u00f3 do b\u1ecfng. \u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tr\u00ean truy\u1ec1n h\u00ecnh \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1ea2 R\u1eadp, c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a Bouazizi g\u1ee3i l\u00ean s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ea3m c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 l\u00f2ng c\u0103m ph\u1eabn \u1edf ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 kh\u1edfi ngu\u1ed3n cho m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t tin r\u1eb1ng H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o hay c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1ea2 R\u1eadp ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi ti\u1ebfn t\u1edbi d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u1edf c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c, v\u00ec \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 n\u01a1i duy nh\u1ea5t h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi L\u00e0n s\u00f3ng D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 h\u00f3a th\u1ee9 ba. V\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea1o H\u1ed3i hay v\u0103n ho\u00e1 \u1ea2 R\u1eadp \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 ch\u1ecbu tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m cho s\u1ef1 ph\u1ea3n kh\u00e1ng l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do n\u00e0y. Tuy nhi\u00ean, b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0o cho r\u1eb1ng \u1ea2 R\u1eadp l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7 v\u00e0 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00ec c\u1ea7n xem l\u1ea1i khi ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n di\u1ec5n ra v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2011.1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i \u1ea2 R\u1eadp ch\u01b0a ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00fang trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. B\u1ed1n n\u0103m sau m\u00f9a xu\u00e2n \u1ea2 R\u1eadp, kh\u00f4ng r\u00f5 li\u1ec7u n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do c\u00f3 s\u1edbm xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u1edf nh\u1eefng qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a m\u00f9a xu\u00e2n \u1ea2 R\u1eadp hay kh\u00f4ng, ngo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia n\u01a1i n\u00f3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u, Tuy-ni-di. \u1ede Ai C\u1eadp, t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c Anh Em H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o, t\u1eebng b\u1ecb c\u1ea5m ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ea7u v\u00e0 chi ph\u1ed1i qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 m\u1edbi trong m\u1ed9t n\u0103m cho t\u1edbi khi qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u00e0 Mohamed Morsi v\u00e0o m\u00f9a h\u00e8 2013. Ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Ai C\u1eadp \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e0n \u00e1p \u0111\u1eabm m\u00e1u kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m h\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o m\u00e0 c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00ea ph\u00e1n theo khuynh h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1ef1 do. Cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed5i d\u1eady t\u1ea1i qu\u1ea3ng tr\u01b0\u1eddng Tahrir kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 m\u00e0 n\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 khi\u1ebfn qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c r\u00fat lui chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt. Li-bi ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ch\u00ecm trong h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n khi ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n trung \u01b0\u01a1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1ea3i gi\u00e1p c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m v\u0169 trang. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c bi\u1ec3u t\u00ecnh \u00f4n ho\u00e0 ch\u1ed1ng Bashar al-Assad \u1edf Si-ri b\u1ecb \u0111\u00e0n \u00e1p m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch t\u00e0n nh\u1eabn v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y r\u01a1i v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn k\u00e9o d\u00e0i gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn binh H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o c\u1ea5p ti\u1ebfn v\u00e0 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea3ng Bath[1]<\/a>. C\u00f2n \u1edf Ba-ranh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00f9ng v\u1ecbnh kh\u00e1c, bi\u1ec3u t\u00ecnh b\u1ecb \u0111\u00e0n \u00e1p m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1eabm m\u00e1u v\u00e0 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 qu\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c duy tr\u00ec quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c. Tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp khu v\u1ef1c, b\u1ea1o l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ea1o c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m th\u00e1nh chi\u1ebfn n\u1ed5i l\u00ean, v\u1ed1n l\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00f4ng \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u00f9a xu\u00e2n \u1ea2 R\u1eadp. M\u1ed9t v\u00e0i \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u00ean g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ee3i \u00edch qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n cho r\u1eb1ng: M\u1ef9, Israel v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 hai b\u00ean c\u00f9ng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i c\u0169 \u1edf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u1ea2 R\u1eadp, v\u00e0 b\u00e2y gi\u1edd \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh trong khu v\u1ef1c. Nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c l\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0a ra lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n l\u00e0 m\u00f9a xu\u00e2n \u1ea2 R\u1eadp kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho m\u1ed9t l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 m\u00e0 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u1ef1 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, v\u00e0 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3, m\u00e0 t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3, l\u00e0 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 phi t\u1ef1 do, hay t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3, l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 lan r\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o c\u1ef1c \u0111oan v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n li\u00ean t\u1ee5c trong khu v\u1ef1c. 2<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, ch\u00fang ta kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a m\u00f9a xu\u00e2n \u1ea2 R\u1eadp. Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u1eefng h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed5i d\u1eady v\u00e0 cho r\u1eb1ng m\u00f9a xu\u00e2n \u1ea2 R\u1eadp s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ed1t ngay c\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, h\u1eb3n \u0111\u00e3 qu\u00ean m\u1ea5t qu\u00e3ng th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i ch\u00ecm trong h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n v\u00e0 b\u1ea1o l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 h\u00f3a \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. M\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u1ed1t \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u thi\u1ebft ch\u1ebf: kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng b\u1ea7u c\u1eed t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng hay c\u01a1 quan l\u1eadp ph\u00e1p m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u1ea3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ea3ng ph\u00e1i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u1ed1t, h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng to\u00e0 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp, b\u1ed9 m\u00e1y h\u00e0nh ch\u00ednh c\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n b\u00e1o ch\u00ed t\u1ef1 do v\u00e0 c\u1ea9n tr\u1ecdng. Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 v\u0103n ho\u00e1 c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng: c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gia v\u00e0 c\u1eed tri kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f3 th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 ng\u01b0\u1eddi chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng c\u00f3 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7, h\u1ecd c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i t\u00f4n tr\u1ecdng c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc h\u01a1n l\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n, v\u00e0 h\u1ecd c\u1ea7n chia s\u1ebb b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc chung v\u00e0 tinh th\u1ea7n d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n L\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i nh\u01b0 Ben Ali hay Mubarak m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf m\u1ed9t ngu\u1ed3n c\u1ee7a s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i. V\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u01b0a c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft ch\u1ebf \u0111i v\u00e0o v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh x\u1ea3y ra ch\u1ec9 sau m\u1ed9t \u0111\u00eam. Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 g\u00e2y ra cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c Iraq mong \u0111\u1ee3i d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 s\u1ebd xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch t\u1ee9c th\u00ec sau khi Saddam Hussein b\u1ecb lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf. Tuy nhi\u00ean h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5t v\u1ecdng khi th\u1ea5y m\u00ecnh ph\u1ea3i qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd m\u1ed9t x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n v\u00e0 b\u1ea1o l\u01b0c, v\u00e0 h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft ch\u1ebf n\u00e0o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n S\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u v\u00e0 Nam M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc n\u00e0o cho t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a phong tr\u00e0o \u201cM\u00f9a xu\u00e2n \u1ea2 R\u1eadp\u201d? Gi\u1eefa Trung \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c nh\u01b0 \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 latin t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t, m\u00e0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi v\u0103n h\u00f3a v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea1o H\u1ed3i. Th\u1ef1c v\u1eady, ch\u00e2u \u00c2u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n l\u1ec7 t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n cho s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb cho th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u1ea2 R\u1eadp h\u01a1n l\u00e0 l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 th\u1ee9 ba di\u1ec5n ra v\u00e0o th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 70 (\u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u v\u00e0 Nam M\u1ef9). Trong nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i \u1edf M\u1ef9 Latin v\u00e0 \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 20, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng c\u00f3 kinh nghi\u1ec7m v\u1ec1 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7. C\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u00e0ng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7, b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n b\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u1edf M\u1ef9 Latin hay b\u1ecb n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u. Do \u0111\u00f3, d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 ho\u00e1, \u1edf m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh, l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u0169 \u0111\u00e3 c\u1eafm r\u1ec5 \u1edf c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u1edf M\u1ef9 Latin, n\u01a1i m\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ea3ng ph\u00e1i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u1ed1t v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 t\u00e1i t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c nhanh m\u1ed9t khi s\u1ef1 c\u1edf m\u1edf ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb m\u1edf ra. C\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u, th\u00ec c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia T\u00e2y \u00c2u v\u00e0 Li\u00ean minh ch\u00e2u \u00c2u l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng v\u00ed d\u1ee5 g\u1ea7n g\u0169i v\u00e0 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 v\u00e0 khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 h\u00f3a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u1ea2 R\u1eadp ng\u00e0y nay v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 kinh nghi\u1ec7m g\u00ec v\u1ec1 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7. Trong khi ng\u00e0y nay c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn cung c\u1ea5p c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb l\u1eabn nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, song n\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ed1ng l\u01b0ng b\u1edfi M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y, v\u00e0 v\u00ec v\u1eady lu\u00f4n b\u1ecb nghi ng\u1edd b\u1edfi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc trong th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u1ea2 R\u1eadp. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u, v\u1ed1n r\u1ea5t vui m\u1eebng khi ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn v\u1edbi Li\u00ean minh ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, NATO v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y kh\u00e1c sau khi tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 chi ph\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a Li\u00ean X\u00f4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Cho d\u00f9 c\u1ea3 Trung \u0110\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ea1i v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19 \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 kinh nghi\u1ec7m v\u1edbi d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7, nh\u01b0ng gi\u1eefa ch\u00fang v\u1eabn t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t quan tr\u1ecdng, \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u1edbi H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o. T\u00f4n gi\u00e1o c\u0169ng \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 quan tr\u1ecdng \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19: \u0110\u1ea3ng Trung h\u1eefu \u0110\u1ee9c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3ng D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 C\u01a1 \u0111\u1ed1c \u1edf Ph\u00e1p v\u00e0 \u00dd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 t\u00f4n gi\u00e1o ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c quan t\u00e2m giai c\u1ea5p. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, giai c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c gia v\u1eabn l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o n\u00ean b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ea3ng ph\u00e1i h\u01a1n l\u00e0 t\u00f4n gi\u00e1o, trong khi \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00fang v\u1edbi Trung \u0110\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7n nay. (D\u00f9 v\u1eady, t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng \u0111\u00fang (v\u1edbi Trung \u0110\u00f4ng): b\u1edfi t\u1eeb th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 50 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 70, ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u1ea2 R\u1eadp c\u0169ng b\u1ecb chi ph\u1ed1i b\u1edfi ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c h\u01a1n l\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng r\u1ea3i r\u00e1c c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3ng c\u00e1nh t\u1ea3 theo ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn, l\u00e0 l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t. Trong c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o hi\u1ec7n nay, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 Pakistan c\u00f3 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i m\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ee7 l\u1edbn cai tr\u1ecb \u0111a s\u1ed1 n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n, gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ch\u00e2u \u00c2u t\u1eebng c\u00f3 v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19. Phe b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 \u1edf h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o v\u00e0 \u1ea2 R\u1eadp n\u1eb1m trong gi\u1edbi ch\u00f3p bu c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c b\u1ed9 l\u1ea1c, c\u00e1c gia \u0111\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 b\u00e8 ph\u00e1i c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, c\u00e1c s\u1ef9 quan qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n b\u00e8 ph\u00e1i t\u1eadp trung quanh c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i c\u1ed5 x\u01b0a, v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a h\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o. Phe b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngu\u1ed3n h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u1eeb b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i tr\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p h\u1ecd gi\u00fap \u0111\u1ee1 l\u1eabn nhau. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, phe b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ef1c to l\u1edbn t\u1eeb M\u1ef9, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y kh\u00e1c trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i, v\u00e0 t\u1eeb l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a ga v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf \u1edf v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh. T\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp lao \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean to\u00e0n khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f3 \u00edt quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp n\u00e0y \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19, b\u1edfi ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn khu v\u1ef1c, gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 Hy L\u1ea1p v\u00e0 mi\u1ec1n nam n\u01b0\u1edbc \u00dd, \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u2018hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i ho\u00e1 m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n\u2019. C\u00f4ng \u0111o\u00e0n t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i \u1edf Ai C\u1eadp v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng n\u01a1i kh\u00e1c trong th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u1ea2 R\u1eadp v\u00e0 m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 h\u1ecd \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 quan tr\u1ecdng trong ph\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i, song h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn \u0111\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea3o v\u00e0 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng trong d\u00e2n ch\u00fang gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra \u1edf Anh ho\u1eb7c \u0110\u1ee9c th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tuy nhi\u00ean, gi\u1eefa th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u1ea2 R\u1eadp v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19 c\u0169ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng. \u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 ho\u00e1 c\u00f3 g\u1ed1c r\u1ec5 t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 huy \u0111\u1ed9ng x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i do s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i kinh t\u1ebf \u2013 x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng t\u1ea1o ra. Khi qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ho\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 di\u1ec5n ra \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19, n\u00f3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t giai c\u1ea5p v\u00f4 s\u1ea3n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng. \u0110a s\u1ed1 n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n \u0111\u00e3 r\u1eddi b\u1ecf n\u00f4ng th\u00f4n l\u00ean th\u00e0nh ph\u1ed1, n\u01a1i m\u00e0 h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tuy\u1ec3n d\u1ee5ng b\u1edfi nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ea3ng ph\u00e1i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb m\u1edbi v\u00e0 d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb l\u00f4i k\u00e9o b\u1edfi nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi k\u00eau g\u1ecdi d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 cu\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 20. Khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ecb ho\u00e1 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch nhanh ch\u00f3ng, t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 d\u00e2n th\u00e0nh th\u1ecb t\u0103ng l\u00ean t\u1eeb 30% l\u00ean 50% trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 1970 \u0111\u1ebfn 2010.3<\/sup> Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n con ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra b\u1edfi Li\u00ean H\u1ee3p Qu\u1ed1c (M\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u1ec1 s\u1ee9c kho\u1ebb, gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp) \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 28% \u1edf Ai C\u1eadp v\u00e0 30% \u1edf Tuy-ni-di trong kho\u1ea3ng t\u1eeb 1990 \u0111\u1ebfn 2010. S\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng sinh vi\u00ean t\u1ed1t nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n t\u0103ng v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 nhanh h\u01a1n, v\u00e0 \u1edf c\u1ea3 hai qu\u1ed1c gia sinh vi\u00ean th\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e0n n\u00e0n v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c thi\u1ebfu vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m t\u01b0\u01a1ng x\u1ee9ng v\u1edbi tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9 gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Ch\u00ednh nh\u00f3m n\u00e0y v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng internet v\u00e0 m\u1ea1ng x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e3 lan to\u1ea3 h\u00ecnh \u1ea3nh v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e0n \u00e1p v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ee9ng ra t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c bi\u1ec3u t\u00ecnh ch\u1ed1ng ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Samuel Huntington trong cu\u1ed1n \u201cTr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb trong x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i \u0111ang thay \u0111\u1ed5i<\/em>\u201d cho r\u1eb1ng t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u s\u1ebd l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1eabn t\u1edbi s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. Nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng, theo \u00f4ng, s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c b\u1edfi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngh\u00e8o nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i b\u1edfi h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u1ea3 ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 tri th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u l\u00e0 nh\u00f3m c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3i nghi\u1ec7m s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ecba v\u1ecb x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 v\u00ec v\u1eady l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ea5t v\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t n\u1ebfu \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y b\u1ecb ch\u1eb7n l\u1ea1i. Ch\u00ednh kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch gi\u1eefa k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c ti\u1ec5n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u1ede c\u1ea3 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u1ea2 R\u1eadp l\u1eabn C\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u 1848, t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u l\u00e0 nh\u00e2n t\u1ed1 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trong vi\u1ec7c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng v\u00e0 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. Cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed5i d\u1eady \u1edf Tuy-ni-di ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Ben Ali v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c bi\u1ec3u t\u00ecnh \u1edf qu\u1ea3ng tr\u01b0\u1eddng Tahrir ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Mubarak \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1eabn d\u1eaft b\u1edfi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00e0nh th\u1ecb v\u00e0 t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd b\u1ecb c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf b\u1edfi ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i. (C\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed5i d\u1eady \u1edf Li-bi v\u00e0 Yemen th\u00ec ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n; t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u \u00edt h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, v\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 th\u00eam s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c b\u1ed9 l\u1ea1c. T\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u \u1edf Si-ri l\u1edbn h\u01a1n nh\u01b0ng b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc phe ph\u00e1i nhanh ch\u00f3ng l\u1ea5n \u00e1t s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t b\u00ecnh v\u1ec1 giai c\u1ea5p hay \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t giai c\u1ea5p trung l\u01b0u m\u1edbi kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u1ee7a qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ecb ho\u00e1. \u1ede nhi\u1ec1u kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh kh\u00e1c, s\u1ef1 n\u1ed5i l\u00ean c\u1ee7a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o v\u1ec1 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng di\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t d\u1ea1ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ni\u1ec1m tin t\u00edn ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i. V\u1edbi c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec3u nh\u01b0 v\u1eady H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o \u0111\u00e3 thay th\u1ebf giai c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 huy \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ee9ng ngo\u00e0i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. Trung \u0110\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 t\u1eeb Gemeinschaft th\u00e0nh Gesellschaft, t\u1eeb l\u00e0ng m\u1ea1c truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i, nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua cu\u1ed1i th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19, \u0111i c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi n\u00f3 l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng l\u1ed9n x\u1ed9n v\u1ec1 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u00e0 b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc m\u00e0 s\u1ef1 d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n nh\u01b0 v\u1eady t\u1ea1o ra. V\u00e0 trong kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 sau \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp t\u1eeb ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a th\u1ef1c d\u00e2n, ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c th\u1ebf t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ngu\u1ed3n c\u1ee7a b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb nghi ng\u1edd t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 70 sau khi th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i trong vi\u1ec7c t\u1ea1o ra t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng, v\u00e0 c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 nh\u01b0 cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t Israel \u2013 Palestine. Kho\u1ea3ng tr\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ea7y b\u1edfi t\u00f4n gi\u00e1o, th\u1ee9 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t ngu\u1ed3n r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n cho b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n \u1edf v\u00f9ng n\u00f4ng th\u00f4n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ecb ho\u00e1 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn ti vi v\u1ec7 tinh v\u00e0 internet. M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng l\u00fd do cho s\u1ef1 n\u1ed5i l\u00ean c\u1ee7a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb l\u00e0 b\u1edfi n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00e0n v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc, t\u00f4n gi\u00e1o v\u00e0 giai c\u1ea5p x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t l\u00fac.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Giai c\u1ea5p v\u1eabn gi\u1eef vai tr\u00f2 quan tr\u1ecdng \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7n nay d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u1edbp v\u1ecf c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb t\u00f4n gi\u00e1o. Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do ki\u1ec3u ch\u00e2u \u00c2u ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c, thu\u1ed9c t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u th\u00e0nh th\u1ecb, trong khi nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ea3ng H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o nh\u01b0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c Anh em H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o \u1edf Ai C\u1eadp v\u00e0 Ennahda \u1edf Tuy-ni-di th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean t\u1eeb c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng n\u00f4ng th\u00f4n ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u00e8o \u0111\u00f3i v\u00e0 y\u1ebfu th\u1ebf \u0111ang sinh s\u1ed1ng trong khu v\u1ef1c th\u00e0nh th\u1ecb. V\u00ec b\u1ecb c\u1ea5m ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1eddi ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i, nh\u1eefng t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0y chuy\u1ec3n sang cung c\u1ea5p tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp c\u00e1c d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 cho nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngh\u00e8o v\u00e0 v\u00ec v\u1eady c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf khi c\u1ea7n huy \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n n\u00e0y khi kh\u00f4ng gian ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb tr\u1edf n\u00ean c\u1edfi m\u1edf h\u01a1n. \u0110i\u1ec1u t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 c\u0169ng x\u1ea3y ra v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 \u1edf Iran khi h\u1ecd c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng tuy\u1ec3n m\u1ed9 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi thu\u1ed9c t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp ngh\u00e8o \u0111\u00f3i v\u00e0 \u00edt \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c trong x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tuy nhi\u00ean, kinh nghi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u n\u0103m 1848 cho th\u1ea5y vi\u1ec7c lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf m\u1ed9t ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i v\u00e0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng xoay quanh s\u1ef1 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf ho\u00e1 vi\u1ec7c tham gia r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn, trong \u0111\u00f3 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u1ed1t. Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a t\u1ef1 do thu\u1ed9c t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u v\u1ed1n d\u1eabn d\u1eaft cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng ph\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea1nh tranh trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed v\u00e0 h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u00e0nh l\u1eadp li\u00ean minh v\u1edbi v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m kh\u00e1c. Nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng t\u1ef1 do n\u0103m 1848 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i trong vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m 2 \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u00ean trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi h\u1ecd b\u1ecb \u0111\u00e0n \u00e1p b\u1edfi nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u1ea3n c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i thu\u1ed9c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i. C\u00e1c nh\u00f3m trung l\u01b0u d\u1eabn d\u1eaft cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng \u1ea2 R\u1eadp g\u1eb7p v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 trong vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea1nh tranh trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed trong v\u00e0i n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u sau cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed5i d\u1eady, h\u1ecd b\u1ecb chia r\u1ebd t\u1eeb b\u00ean trong v\u00e0 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o h\u01a1n l\u00e0 v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c l\u00f4i k\u00e9o qu\u1ea7n ch\u00fang tham gia. B\u00e2y gi\u1edd h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e3 l\u1ea5y l\u1ea1i s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 s\u1ebd ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u1ede ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m trung l\u01b0u d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 hi\u1ebfm khi t\u1ef1 m\u00ecnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00f3. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 li\u00ean minh gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp kh\u00e1c nhau \u1edf \u0111\u1ee7 m\u1ecdi th\u1ec3 lo\u1ea1i. \u1ede \u0110an M\u1ea1ch, c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m trung l\u01b0u li\u00ean minh v\u1edbi t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n (ho\u1eb7c ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ee7 trang tr\u1ea1i, b\u1edfi t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n c\u0169 \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebfn m\u1ea5t \u1edf th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y) \u0111\u1ec3 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n chuy\u00ean ch\u1ebf n\u0103m 1848; n\u0103m 1915, h\u1ecd li\u00ean minh v\u1edbi t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp lao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 ph\u1ed5 th\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea7u phi\u1ebfu. \u1ede \u0110\u1ee9c, t\u1ea5ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u li\u00ean minh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp lao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 cho c\u1ed9ng ho\u00e0 Weimar, \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 c\u0169ng x\u1ea3y ra \u1edf Thu\u1ef5 \u0110i\u1ec3n, B\u1ec9, v\u00e0 H\u00e0 Lan. V\u00e0 \u1edf Thu\u1ef5 S\u1ef9, Anh v\u00e0 \u00dd, h\u1ecd li\u00ean minh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3ng b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng quy\u1ec1n b\u1ea7u c\u1eed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nh\u01b0ng, nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y \u1edf ch\u01b0\u01a1ng 28, c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m trung l\u01b0u kh\u00f4ng h\u1eb3n l\u00e0 s\u1ebd \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do. H\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 li\u00ean minh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 m\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 kh\u1ecfi m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ea1i ch\u00fang v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111e do\u1ea1 quy\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng b\u1edfi nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00f3m trung l\u01b0u \u1edf M\u1ef9 Latin trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 60, 70 v\u00e0 80, v\u00e0 \u1edf Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3 cho t\u1edbi t\u1eadn cu\u1ed1i th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 90. C\u00e1ch l\u00e0m n\u00e0y ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i \u1edf Ai C\u1eadp n\u0103m 2013 n\u01a1i m\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u1eebng theo ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a t\u1ef1 do tr\u1edf n\u00ean qu\u00e1 c\u0103m ph\u1eabn v\u1edbi t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o Morsi, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ea7u n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, \u0111\u1ebfn n\u1ed7i h\u1ecd \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 \u00f4ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u1ea1i Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0o th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19, s\u1ef1 huy \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u1ea7n ch\u00fang \u0111\u1ec3 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb ch\u1eb7n l\u1ea1i b\u1edfi ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c. Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u trong cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng Ph\u00e1p, khi m\u00e0 l\u1eddi k\u00eau g\u1ecdi v\u00ec quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi nhanh ch\u00f3ng chuy\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh s\u1ef1 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh mang t\u00ednh qu\u00e2n phi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia Ph\u00e1p. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00e1 r\u00f5 \u1edf \u0110\u1ee9c nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1870 khi c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a t\u1ef1 do nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1840 v\u00e0 1850 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 nhi\u1ec7t t\u00ecnh cho Bismarck v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng cu\u1ed9c th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u1ee9c b\u1eb1ng b\u1ea1o l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng. V\u00e0 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 8 n\u0103m 1914, khi \u0111a ph\u00e2n th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3ng thu\u1ed9c t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp lao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean s\u00e1ng l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n th\u1ee9 2 \u0111\u1ee9ng sau ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 lao v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 v\u0103n ho\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p ho\u00e1 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn c\u00e1c x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u1edbi \u0111a s\u1ed1 H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea5u tranh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m chi\u1ebfn binh H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7; trong khi kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda n\u00e0o t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 th\u1ee9 ba t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 Latin. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u cho r\u1eb1ng t\u1ef1 b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea1o H\u1ed3i \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i t\u1edbi d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 b\u1edfi v\u00ec n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa nh\u00e0 th\u1edd v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, v\u00e0 ch\u1ee9a ch\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng l\u00e2u \u0111\u1eddi v\u1ec1 t\u00ednh hi\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn t\u00f4n gi\u00e1o. C\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o nh\u01b0 Ennahda \u1edf Tuy-ni-di hay t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c Anh em H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o \u1edf Ai C\u1eadp v\u1ed1n tu\u00e2n theo c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecb quy k\u1ebft l\u00e0 l\u1ee3i d\u1ee5ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c; ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1eabn c\u00f2n ch\u1ee9a m\u1ed9t l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft v\u1ec1 nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n phi t\u1ef1 do. S\u1ef1 n\u1ed5i l\u00ean c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m n\u00e0y sau \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 k\u00edch th\u00edch c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e0n \u00e1p h\u1ecd, d\u1eabn t\u1edbi n\u1ec1n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb b\u1ecb chia r\u1ebd th\u00e0nh 2 phe ph\u1ea3n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i nhau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Vi\u1ec7c li\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o c\u00f3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i v\u0129nh vi\u1ec5n ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n s\u1ef1 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do \u1edf c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 \u0111a s\u1ed1 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o hay kh\u00f4ng, c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n vi\u1ec7c kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c l\u00e0m cho n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o v\u1ec1 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng di\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e3 suy y\u1ebfu trong v\u00e0i th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, v\u00e0 trong th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 20 n\u00f3 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 ph\u1ee5 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c v\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00e1c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c th\u1ebf t\u1ee5c hay ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i t\u1ef1 do. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng v\u0103n ho\u00e1 l\u1edbn v\u00e0 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch theo nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c nhau. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 h\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 trung t\u00e2m trong \u0111\u1ea1o C\u01a1 \u0111\u1ed1c (gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 trong \u0111\u1ea1o H\u1ed3i), Gi\u00e1o h\u1ed9i C\u01a1 \u0111\u1ed1c t\u1ef1 nguy\u1ec7n li\u00ean minh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 c\u1ea7m quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ec7n minh cho c\u00e1c tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 phi t\u1ef1 do trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7. Song m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 h\u00f3a th\u1ee9 ba \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 Latin l\u1ea1i li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch l\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft Ki t\u00f4 gi\u00e1o, khi Vatican II trong th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 60 l\u00e0m cho h\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y t\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u00edch v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i.4<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o c\u1ef1c \u0111oan c\u0169ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. C\u00f3 v\u1ebb nh\u01b0 s\u1ef1 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n nay c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u00e0 b\u1edfi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1eddi c\u1ee7a Trung \u0110\u00f4ng h\u01a1n l\u00e0 b\u1edfi b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a t\u00f4n gi\u00e1o. Th\u1ef1c ra, s\u1ef1 lan r\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o v\u1ec1 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng di\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t d\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u th\u1ebf k\u1ec9 19. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean b\u1edfi Ernest Gellner, m\u00e0 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn \u1edf ch\u01b0\u01a1ng 12. Gellner, nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y, cho r\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc, v\u1ed1n x\u1ea3y ra khi c\u00e1c x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i ho\u00e1 v\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch t\u1eeb Gesllschaft \u2013 nh\u1eefng ng\u00f4i l\u00e0ng nh\u1ecf \u2013 sang Gemeinschaft \u2013 nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh ph\u1ed1 l\u1edbn. Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu x\u1ea3y ra \u1edf c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111ang hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i h\u00f3a, n\u01a1i nh\u1eefng h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c danh t\u00ednh c\u0169 h\u1eb9p h\u00f2i d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean quan h\u1ec7 huy\u1ebft th\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng bi\u1ebfn m\u1ea5t v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thay th\u1ebf b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c h\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ed5 qu\u00e1t h\u01a1n, k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i c\u00e1c c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c phong tr\u00e0o v\u0103n h\u00f3a r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n. \u00d4ng cho r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, n\u01a1i t\u00f4n gi\u00e1o \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c t\u1eebng c\u00f3 \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. V\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n c\u0169 \u0111ang s\u1ed1ng \u1edf Cairo hay Karachi, ho\u1eb7c v\u1edbi th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 ng\u01b0\u1eddi di c\u01b0 H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o th\u1ee9 2 \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, th\u00ec m\u1ed9t nh\u00e2n v\u1eadt nh\u01b0 Osama bin Laden c\u00f3 th\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c cho c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u201cT\u00f4i l\u00e0 ai?\u201d. S\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o v\u1ec1 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng di\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb trong ph\u1ea7n cu\u1ed1i th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 20 v\u00ec th\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o v\u0129nh h\u1eb1ng b\u1ea5t di\u1ec7t, nh\u01b0 c\u1ea3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u1edfi x\u01b0\u1edbng H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o c\u1ef1c \u0111oan v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch h\u1ecd v\u1eabn kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh, m\u00e0 \u0111\u00fang h\u01a1n \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u1eeda hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i c\u00f3 \u1edf h\u1ea7u kh\u1eafp c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc Trung \u0110\u00f4ng.5<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y ch\u00e2u \u00c2u t\u1edbi d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 \u1edf th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19 b\u1ecb ch\u1ec7ch h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c, c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c v\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng b\u1ecb ch\u1ec7ch h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi t\u00f4n gi\u00e1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do \u0111\u00f3, l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i th\u1ee9 ba \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 Latin l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 d\u1eabn nh\u1ea7m l\u1eabn cho m\u00f9a xu\u00e2n \u1ea2 R\u1eadp. Ch\u00ednh h\u00e0nh tr\u00ecnh gian nan v\u00e0 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u t\u1eeb ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 chuy\u00ean quy\u1ec1n qua ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c r\u1ed3i m\u1edbi t\u1edbi d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn cho nh\u1eefng ai hy v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do s\u1ebd xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n s\u1edbm \u1edf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u1ea2 R\u1eadp c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y kh\u00f4ng d\u1ec5 ch\u1ecbu. Ch\u00fang ta ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 hy v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf, th\u00ec n\u00f3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 d\u00e0i nh\u01b0 \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 kinh nghi\u1ec7m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 v\u1ec1 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 v\u00e0 v\u00ec v\u1eady kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ecdc theo. Trung \u0110\u00f4ng th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. C\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 m\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1eefa nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c v\u1ec1 ph\u00e1p l\u00fd v\u00e0 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y tu\u1ef3 v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p \u0111an xen l\u1eabn nhau, v\u1ed1n m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng. C\u01a1 s\u1edf x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i cho m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u n\u0103m 1848, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i \u1edf nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc Trung \u0110\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7n nay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ch\u00fa th\u00edch<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>Ngu\u1ed3n:\u00a0<\/strong>Francis Fukuyama. 2014. From 1848 To The Arab Spring (T\u1eeb 1848 \u0111\u1ebfn M\u00f9a xu\u00e2n \u1ea2 R\u1eadp; b\u1ea3n d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a Nguy\u1ec5n \u0110\u1ee9c Vi\u1ec7t).\u00a0Political Order and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalization of Democracy.\u00a0<\/em>Farrar, Straus and Giroux. B\u1ea3n ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t<\/a> c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m Tinh Th\u1ea7n Khai Minh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" C\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a\u00a0\u201cM\u00f9a xu\u00e2n\u00a0\u1ea2\u00a0R\u1eadp\u201d; nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng gi\u1eefa Trung \u0110\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ea1i v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19; t\u00f4n gi\u00e1o v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c \u2013 hai l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh lu\u00e2n phi\u00ean cho s\u1ef1 huy \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,8,15,17],"tags":[28,54,69],"class_list":["post-255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chinh-tri","category-dan-chu-hoa","category-the-gioi","category-trung-dong","tag-a-rap","tag-dan-chu-hoa","tag-francis-fukuyama"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/255","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=255"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/255\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diendanduytan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/phongtraoduytan.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/arabspring-1024x576.webp\")
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